Week 12 QB Analysis: Colts lean on Minshew and he is up to the challenge

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

DASHBOARD

• Against a good Buccaneer run defense, the Colts implemented a pass-first offense and had the most successful run game of the week (2nd edp, 1sr arsr).
• After a week where he held the ball forever, Minshew returned to getting rid of the ball quickly, which certainly helped with the low pressure rate he experienced (29th ttt%, 22nd pr%)
• Minshew’s quick throws came on short attempts and resulted in short completions, which makes sense (24th adot, 24th ay/c).
• The receivers tacked on very good yards after the catch (11th yac, 5th yacoe), but Minshew’s accuracy was horrible, so that tanked his yards per attempt (31st cpoe, 24th ypa).
• His abandoned play rate was low, so his overall yardage efficiency ranking bumps up a bit relative to ypa (21st aa%, 21st ny/d).
• His conversion and turnover rates were “meh” and his td rate was below average (17th 1st%, 17th to%, 22nd td%), but he had big enough plays to boost his epa efficiency to 13th-best (epa/d). His 20th-ranked passing success rate was more in line with the rest of his numbers.

I’ve heard his performance described as “solid play”. I don’t think I would go that far, but yeah, he did OK. I think he missed some throws that an average QB should have hit, but as I have said before, he is not a starting-caliber QB, so that’s going to happen.

HOW WELL?

You can see that his 2 big completions on the 4th down attempts were such big value plays that it skewed his overall EPA efficiency higher (13th epa/d) relative to his less than stellar success rate (20th psdr).

Trend-wise the numbers are looking better.

HOW FAR?

There was a good mix of passing depths, but his completion rate was just too low to support a decent ypa.

Passing depth is trending shorter and that’s really where Minshew should live. Short, quick and accurate will win the day and 2 out of 3 doesn’t cut it.

TO WHO?

Was hoping that Downs could bounce-back after a bye week, but 5 catches on 13 targets ain’t it.

HOW ACCURATE?

Accuracy has been a problem and it’s not trending better.

HOW FAST?

Minshew lost the happy-feet dance this week (mostly) and it showed in his time to throw which dropped from longest to almost quickest.

TO WHERE?

He didn’t have success on the deeper throws, but did pretty well within 10 yards (more of that please).