Week 9 QB Analysis: Minshew works on his short game

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

DASHBOARD

• The Colts stayed with a run-first offense even though it was not very efficient (29th edp, 24th arsr). This was likely due to game-script as they maintained a 2-score lead for a good portion of the game.
• Minshew saw average pressure but released the ball quickly and threw the ball away a lot, avoiding sacks (16th pr%, 29th ttt, 5th ta%, 19th sck%).
• Those quick throws were primarily short routes and check-downs (21st adot, 29th ay/c)
• Minshew was accurate on those short throws, but receiver YAC was low, which culminated in a very poor passing yardage efficiency (14th cpoe, 22nd YAC, 29th ypa).
• His ability to handle pressure resulted in a low abandoned pass rate with about average yardage on those plays (22nd aa%, 17th aay), so his overall yardage efficiency ranking on dropbacks was about the same as attempts (29th ypa, 2tyh ny/d).
• He didn’t get a lot of first downs but had a decent TD rate (23rd 1st%, 12th td%)
• Unlike previous games, he kept turnovers low, which lifted his EPA efficiency up to near league average (26th to%, 19th epa/d, 19th psr)

HOW WELL?

There were far fewer dropbacks this week and early on they were quite efficient, but incompletions/throw-aways started to stack up in the 2nd half.

Overall numbers are better than last week, but still significantly below the average starter.

HOW FAR?

Everything was working until 32 minutes left. After that, Minshew completed only 1 pass over 5 yards. There were only 3 attempts over 10 yards all day.

Passing distance is dramatically down this week.

TO WHO?

An injured Downs was not a factor in production as Pittman re-established his hold as receiving leader.

HOW ACCURATE?

There was a bounce back in accuracy but with far fewer and far shorter passes.

HOW FAST?

Minshew got rid of the ball much, much quicker than he did last week. Of course, with shorter passes, that is to be expected. However, he was releasing the ball significantly before the pressure arrived, which, in isolation, is a good thing.

TO WHERE?

There were 0 attempts over 20 yards. And none over the middle past the line of scrimmage.