What are the Colts missing in order to become contenders?

An offseason reflexion about the state of the NFL and where the Indianapolis Colts currently are

Right when the AFC freed itself from the grasp of Tom Brady, another generational type of winning quarterback emerges right in our conference. The Colts, unlike the last time that happened, were not in a position to compete against said quarterback, as instead it was the Bengals, Bills, and Ravens who fell victim to the AFC monopoly ran by Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes. All things must come to an end though, and with Mahomes’ $500 million contract the Chiefs are clearly struggling to retain top end talent, also I consider Reid to be a noticeable step behind BB in coaching, and the Chiefs do not have the luxury of their franchise quarterback taking a pay cut to help improve the team. With that said, I believe that the Colts are in a pivotal moment if they want to have a viable title window in the next 3 seasons with quarterback Anthony Richardson still on his rookie contract. The Texans are in a very similar position, and taking a much different approach, so far having signed several free agents and trading back in the draft to get more picks to fill out their roster.

The Colts’ approach has been consistent with how Ballard has ran the team ever since arriving in Indy. First of all the Colts re-signed all their free agents, giving big deals to MPJ, Grover Stewart, Kenny Moore, and Zaire Franklin. The only outside free-agent they signed is Raekwon Davis, who will most likely be a backup in the defensive line. The team’s roster is riddled with needs, especially in the secondary. Look at the Colts’ safeties and cornerbacks right now, there is not a single player that has proven NFL experience. Keep in mind this is a defense that was among the worst in the NFL last season, and it appears that they will be losing their starting safety. That is also why I cannot comprehend the mock drafts saying the Colts will draft a receiver or a tight end.

With Anthony Richardson back and healthy, and Steichen’s second year with the team, I expect the offense to be just fine. If AR remains healthy there is enough talent there for the unit to rank at least in the top 10 scoring offenses. Some depth at receiver would be nice, and you can never have too many depth at offensive line, but it seems like the fanbase as a whole is ignoring the obvious warning signs here.

First of all, the Colts need to solve their defensive backfield situation. If the season started tomorrow, the starters at safety would be Nick Cross and Rodney Thomas II / Ronnie Harrison Jr. How confident would you be in that tandem on a playoff night at Kansas City? Lucky for the Colts this is the deepest free agent safety class I can remember, and the cornerback draft class is really strong, so there is still plenty of options to improve that. It seems like every single season there is a position where the fanbase is clamoring for improvements and Ballard refuses to do, and then that same position group proving the undoing of the team.

Once the safety situation is resolved, then before turning their attention to the offense the Colts need to get even more pass-rushing help. Kwity Paye has not developed as expected, Dayo Odeyingbo is still struggling to find consistency, and Samson Ebukam’s specialty is stopping the run. Yes, the Colts had 51 sacks, a franchise record and 5th in the NFL, but the pressure rate at 19.6% was the 20th best in the league. In simple terms, the Colts’ defense was insanely good at turning pressures into sacks, something that is not sustainable in the long term. Premier pass-rushers rarely ever hit the market, and when they do they are signed really fast, which is not Ballard’s modus operandi in free-agency.

To recap the defensive side of the ball, the Colts need at least three players to reach average status: a starting safety with proven NFL experience, a veteran cornerback, and a pass-rusher that can pressure opposing quarterbacks consistently.

Turning our attention to the offensive side of the ball, the need for a wide receiver has been greatly exaggerated. The #1 spot is locked and covered with Michael Pittman Jr. The slot receiver position is well covered by standout rookie Josh Downs, and the only minor hole is the #2 spot. Alec Pierce had a disappointing second year, but when you look at the film Pierce was clearly not benefitted going from Anthony Richardson to Gardner Minshew. The other exaggerated need is tight end, with some mock drafts pointing Brock Bowers as the Colts’ pick at #15. Remember a guy named Jelani Woods? Kylen Granson and Will Mallory are also decent options at the position. What the Colts do need in their offense is depth, depth in the offensive line, some more depth at receiver, and a backup running back to help take some load of Jonathan Taylor.

Quarterback is king in today’s NFL. The Colts could solve all their aforementioned issues, and if Anthony Richardson gets injured again or struggles in his second year, then that would be for nothing. Now if Richardson proves that his rookie flashes had substance behind them, and the Colts can at least build an average defense, then a deep playoff run is not out of the question for this roster.