What Could A Tristan Wirfs Contract Extension Look Like?

In what is becoming a limited series, I am taking a look at possible extensions/contracts for key Bucs players. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs just completed his third season in the NFL. This offseason marks his first opportunity to sign an extension with the team. And while he is eligible, it isn’t entirely likely that it will materialize this offseason due to the Bucs’ current cap constraints. But the chances aren’t exaclty zero.

Wirfs is still under contract for 2023 at a cap hit of $5,163,464, and if the Bucs don’t sign him to a long-term contract, they will undoubtedly exercise his fifth-year option to ensure he is under contract for 2024.

Wirfs’ play since entering the league has been absolutely stellar. Perusing Pro Football Focus grades by season, you will find Wirfs in the top 10 of all tackles in each year since 2020. His rookie year, he posted an 84.1 overall grade, good for ninth among all tackles in the NFL. In his second year, Wirfs climbed to sixth with an 84.3 grade. And last year, he fell to eighth with an 83.1 grade during a season in which he played at times with a severe high ankle sprain.

At this point in his career, he is in the conversation for being the best right tackle in the league. He’s right there with Lane Johnson of the Philadelphia Eagles. Wirfs’ case is buoyed by the accolades he is already racking up. In addition to his Super Bowl ring, Wirfs has two Pro Bowl selections and an All-Pro nod.

Given the high level of play and the accolades, Wirfs is set to cash in on his next contract (barring injury), whether that comes in any of the next three offseasons. But what if the Bucs decided to lock up Tristan Wirfs this year? What would that look like? How would it affect his salary cap hit for the upcoming season and what could it look like long term?

Why The Bucs Should Pay Wirfs Now

There are benefits to be had for the Bucs if they elect to lock up Tristan Wirfs sooner rather than later. The way the NFL works, each time a young, talented player reaches an opportunity to get a second long-term contract, they should come close to, if not actually reset the market for their position.

Wirfs will no doubt reset the right tackle market while challenging some of the top left tackles in terms of average annual value. If he does that now, he will only have the current top contracts to compare with. If he and the Bucs wait until next season, fellow 2020 draft class member Andrew Thomas of the Giants could push Wirfs’ deal even higher.

What Could An Extension Look Like

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs and RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Working under the premise that the Bucs and Tristan Wirfs decide to lock up his extension now, here is what that extension might look like. Wirfs’ top comparable is Ryan Ramczyk of the Saints. Ramczyk currently has the top deal among right tackles with the five-year, $96 million deal he signed following the 2021 season. When he signed, Ramczyk was considered one of the top three right tackles in the game and had just one Pro Bowl on his resume. Wirfs has easily surpassed those accolades, and therefore, he’ll have an easy case to top Ramczyk’s deal.

Wirfs will most likely look to use some of the top left tackle deals as comparisons in an effort to potentially become the highest-paid tackle in the NFL. Using Ramczyk’s AAV as a floor,d he only has three left tackle deals that would be larger. Laremy Tunsil, David Bakhtiari and Trent Williams all have AAVs north of $22 million, and I suspect Wirfs will make a play for a contract in that range as well. With the way the salary cap is exploding, I think he is going to be able to hit that range with an AAV in the $22.5 million realm.

With Wirfs having just celebrated his 24th birthday in January, I imagine he would be comfortable with a five-year deal that would allow him to hit free agency again during his age-29 season. That means that the new money that Wirfs will be looking for totals $112.5 million, which would be the second-most ever for an offensive tackle behind only Trent Williams. The Bucs already owe him $2,822,914 in salary for 2023, so the overall contract setup will be for six years and just over $115 million. Here is how that contract could break down:

The extension would allow the Bucs to reduce Wirfs’ salary in 2023 to $1,080,000 while paying him out a modest $18 million signing bonus. His cap hit would raise from $5,163,464 to $7,020,550. His cap hits would exceed $20 million from 2024 on, but also give the Bucs the flexibility to restructure each of those years to help give the team more room depending on need.

The fully guaranteed money on the deal would be $47,580,000 and just over 41% of the total contract, but the roster bonuses would fully vest on the third day of each prior league year. This would all but guarantee the first two roster bonuses and push the functional guarantees to $55,580,000 (48% of the total deal).

The cash flows of the first three years would be $19,080,000 in the first year, $18,750,000 in the second year and $17,750,000 in the third year. The three-year cumulative cash flows for this deal are $55,580,000, which is again 48% of the total deal.

Subtracting out the original money owed on his existing deal, this contract would represent $112,507,086 in new money and a $22,501,417 AAV on the new money. Among the key metrics that agents and players track, here’s where this would rank: second in total value, third in annual average value, second in fully guaranteed money and second in three-year cash flow.

Make no mistake, Tristan Wirfs’ contract is set to be one of the largest of its kind in NFL and Bucs history. It will happen. If not this year or next, it will most likely happen before the beginning of the 2025 season.

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