What could the Steelers’ run game look like under Arthur Smith?

How will Arthur Smith change the Steelers’ run game?

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ run game is what they really leaned on offensively, especially down the stretch in 2023. From Week 9 onward, the Steelers had the eighth best ground attack in the NFL, in terms of EPA per play, and were fifth in the league in rushing success rate in that span.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren were the gas to the car that was the Steelers’ offense, but what will they look like in Arthur Smith’s scheme? And what can we from Smith and the Steelers in 2024 in terms of personnel and tendencies?

Personnel

There was a clear discrepancy in formations that the Steelers used heavily compared to Smith’s Falcons in 2023. The Steelers ran the ball almost exclusively out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end). When looking at the personnel usage for Steelers’ running backs last season, Najee Harris was utilized out of 11 66 percent of the time while Jaylen Warren was used out of 11 personnel 75 percent of the time, per Sports Info Solutions. To compare that to the Falcons last season, Bijan Robinson’s usage out of 11 was only 14 percent. The Falcons utilized a lot more two tight end sets, which is an Arthur Smith staple. The majority of Robinson’s usage came out of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) at 45 percent. To compare, Harris only had usage out of 12 personnel on 21 percent of snaps, and Warren’s usage out of the same personnel was only 15 percent.

The Steelers didn’t run a play out of 22 personnel (two running backs, two tight ends) in 2023- the Falcons had the most rushing yards in the NFL out of 22 personnel. Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson were second and fourth, respectively, in yards out of 22 personnel, and they were second and fifth, respectively, in carries out of 22. Robinson was also second in the NFL in rushing yards with two tight ends on the field.

Expect a lot of 12 and 22 from the Steelers this season, which will be a different look from the last several seasons under Matt Canada.

Run Concepts

When looking at the Falcons general concepts when it came to running the ball last season, they differed from Pittsburgh. Robinson ran to the outside 40 percent of the time while Harris only ran to the outside 17 percent of the time. Warren’s numbers were closer to Robinson, considering his run style, at 30 percent.

Smith’s run game, though, has always been an outside zone type of run game. That’s what helped Derrick Henry have over 3,500 yards from 2019-20 and 33 touchdowns. When you look at where Harris ran the majority of the time in 2023, it was to the inside. Harris ran to the inside on 47 percent of his carries last season, and I would expect that to change in 2024 with more outside zone looks.

Robinson finished second in the league in rushing yards that came on pitches, stretch plays, or outside zone runs to the outside- Allgeier finished seventh. While this isn’t to say that Harris won’t carry the ball between the tackles at all, I would say it’s safe to assume he will have a lot more carries to the outside than we are accustom to. In terms of Warren, I would expect more of the same. His best attribute is creating home run splash plays off outside runs and getting in space, and I think he’ll thrive in Smith’s offense because of that.

The run game will be getting an overhaul. And for a team that was already good at running the ball, combined with the fact that the offensive line should (hopefully) be better, the Steelers’ run game could be very fun in 2024.