What If? Would the Texans move back into the first round of the 2024 draft?

A little pre-draft thought experiment.

At the time of this writing, we are about two weeks out from the NFL Draft. While there is excitement about the draft, for the Houston Texans fan, that excitement is going to be a little different. Mainly due to the Texans procuring the offensive and defensive rookies of the year in Stroud and Anderson, the Texans immediately went from hoping for a good player or two to thinking about what they need to do to actually contend for a title. Their free agency moves reflected that strategy, bringing in some high-dollar talent, mostly on 1-2 years deals (‘cause these are still the Caserio Texans after all). However, the Texans going into the draft will have a far different approach than they did the past few seasons.

Perhaps the biggest difference is that for the 1st time since 2021, the Texans will not have a first round pick. We won’t recap how all of that played out, but suffice it to say, a free agency haul after having a ton of cap space, the sudden emergence of the team, and other teams offering temping deals somewhat mitigated the requirement for a first rounder, but leaving the team with plenty of day two picks. This also succeeded in preempting a possible article talking about how Houston would trade its first round pick to obtain more second rounders…not that we are bitter about that or anything. As of now, the Texans have the following draft picks for 2024:

• Second round(10)
• Second round (27)
• Third round (23)
• Fourth round (23)
• Fourth round (27)
• Sixth round (12)
• Sixth round (13)
• Seventh round (18)
• Seventh round (27)

That leaves us with nine total picks going into the 2024 draft. As far as specific needs, the team could always look for help in the secondary, defensive line (especially at DT) and offensive line depth. However, there is no absolutely glaring deficiency for the team, one that would require likely access to a first round pick to obtain, and even then, one that would have been higher than the 24th pick the Texans surrendered to Minnesota earlier in the off-season.

Recently, Head Coach DeMeco Ryans noted that the team seemed pleased with its current draft situation (prior to the Diggs trade), when he felt there was great value with the second round/day two picks the Texans have. Given that the recent free agency spending spree all but eliminated the cap space the team held coming into the off-season, there is something to be said for holding the current line. Still, given the history of the Texans in the draft under Caserio, it is highly unlikely that the Texans will have the exact same number of draft picks by the end of the draft. Wheeling and dealing on the draft days has been a Texans’ staple under Caserio, and it would be very surprising if the Texans didn’t engage in their usual draft actions.

Likely, the moves in the draft will happen in the middle rounds, especially if there is a prospect or player that the team wants and is not sure will be around when their designated draft pick comes around. You saw it with Nico Collins, we saw in 2022 and we saw it multiple times in the 2023 draft. Trying to project when or how that will happen is the art of the impossible. Trying to figure out who goes where really beyond the first few picks in the first round, and even then, so much will depend on the real-time actions of all 32 teams. With four late day three picks, there is some ammo for Caserio to work with, plus two fourths to help in the dealing.

Yet, could we rule out Houston deciding that it would want to get back into the first round? With Caserio, this is not a 100% certainty. Granted, the team already has its QB and defensive pass rusher, to go along with a quality left tackle and (in theory) plenty of top-tier receiving threats. Perhaps a true CB1-caliber prospect to pair with Stingley, Jr. could be had, and if it is the type of player that Burke, Ryans and Caserio couldn’t refuse, especially if said player was likely to drop into the 20s but maybe be gone by the time the 10th pick of the second round comes around, would Houston do it?

While it might be a bit much for Houston to throw in its first in 2025, or maybe even its remaining second rounder in 2025, they have plenty of 2024 picks to work with. If Houston were to package one of its seconds, thirds, a day three pick of its choice and perhaps a pick from 2025 (not to include the first or second) to move back into the first round, it would be hard for a rival GM to say no. You could run the chart to figure out the proper equivalency, but it could be done if Houston really, really felt that player was worth it. After last year, no one should doubt Caserio’s aggressive flair. Does it always work? The jury is still out on Kenyon Green and Juice Scruggs, but the optimist can point to Collins and Anderson, Jr. as successes with this approach.

How likely will Houston go back into the first? Odds at this point are fairly low. Given the cap situation and the idea that the types of players Houston are looking for that would be around in the late first round will likely be there in the early second round, it doesn’t seem to be logical for Houston to move up. While bold, the logic of getting a cornerstone defender to go with a cornerstone offensive player at the top of the draft made sense for a team like Houston last year. This year, with little likelihood of moving into the 1st round without an exorbitant draft price, and the team needs significantly different from the earlier years this decade, expect Houston to sit out day one of the draft. Wheeling and dealing on day two and three? I would count on it. However, if Houston were to make some sort of move into the first round, we can’t say that we were totally shocked.