What to know about Falcons vs. Saints in Week 12

Atlanta’s got to hit New Orleans where it hurts.

There is no other rivalry in football that inspires the level of disgust and number of often hilarious barbs between fanbases that Atlanta Falcons – New Orleans Saints entails. Unfortunately, that rivalry has become a little too one-sided in recent years, to the detriment of Atlanta fans.

There’s an opportunity to start correcting that Sunday, and it comes at a critical moment for the Falcons. Win and they regain control of the NFC South; lose and they are in even bigger trouble than they already are, with any dreams of seizing the division going from faded to incorporeal.

To get there, they’ll need to get by the Saints at home, leaning on their strengths, improving their weaknesses, and hoping to get the inconsistent, kinda crappy version of New Orleans that has shown up several times this season. I’d really like to bask in the glory of a win over the team I hate the most in the world, personally.

Here’s what you should know about Sunday’s game.

Falcons – Saints head-to-head

If you looked at these rankings side-by-side without knowing the teams or records, you’d likely assume these two teams were further apart than a single game. It’s a testament to how weird and dysfunctional the Saints are that they’ve turned a top ten defense in terms of points and yardage allowed and an offense that’s solid-ish into just a 5-5 record in the worst division in football.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have had their moments but continue to look like a mediocre football team, as their record reflects. They are better at rushing and stopping the run than the Saints, which should become relevant Sunday, but worse at almost everything else. The turnovers, in particular, are a concern for a team that hasn’t forced many and isn’t great at ball security versus a team that is the opposite in both areas.

How the Saints have changed

New Orleans did its customary blood-letting and then found enough money to make impactful additions, as they so often do. They lost David Onyemata, Kaden Elliss, Shy Tuttle, and Marcus Davenport, but added Derek Carr, Nathan Shepherd, Jamaal Williams, and Khalen Saunders in free agency.

Carr was the big addition, both in terms of dollars and what the Saints hoped he’d mean for their offense, but he has been a mixed bag. Fond of barking at teammates, Carr has tossed 10 touchdowns but has turned the ball over eight times between four interceptions and four fumbles, and has been a fine if not particularly great quarterback. With a bevy of weapons at his disposal in Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed, Carr hasn’t consistently elevated that passing game, which is a blessing.

Shepherd has been pretty good and Saunders has been decentish as the team tried to shore up their losses on the interior of the line, while Williams has been an occasionally useful running back for a Saints rushing attack that has really only had a handful of bright moments from Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill.

In the draft, however, the Saints did add some useful talent. First rounder Bryan Bresee looks like a player and Isaiah Foskey may wind up being a quality pass rushing presence, and I still like rookie receiver A.T. Perry. Aside from Bresee, nobody in their class is making a huge immediate impact, however.

The Saints still look like a team that needs some home run draft picks and mid-tier signings to really pan out to remain relevant in the coming years, but in typical Saints fashion, they’re competitive this year in spite of all that. It’s the future they should be worried about/we should be excited about.

What to know about Sunday’s game

First off, you need to know that the Falcons are down Marshon Lattimore and Michael Thomas. That takes one of the team’s better receivers off the field—unfortunately, they still have Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed—and a cornerback who has been a major annoyance for Atlanta over the years. Both those absences will hurt a Saints team that already isn’t great. It’s also worth noting that Derek Carr, recovering from a concussion, is not a lock to play in this huge game.

If that’s the case, the Falcons will see some new faces and one very familiar one. A.T. Perry is a 6’5” receiver I’m stunned the Falcons weren’t interested in near the end of the draft—perhaps he just went before they got a crack at him—and will likely get some snaps with Thomas out. Isaac Yiadom is having a really good year at corner with career-best Pro Football Focus marks in coverage, and will likely take plenty of snaps in relief of Lattimore. And old foe Jameis Winston would fill in for Carr, which is not a consolation given that Winston has had his games where he has absolutely roasted the Falcons in the past, even if he’s an inconsistent passer prone to turnovers.

Those simplify a matchup that’s otherwise anything but simple for Atlanta. The Falcons have lost six of their last seven games to the Saints, the worst run since 2010-2013, and have found stopping the likes of Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara to be difficult-to-impossible. Against a tough New Orleans defense, Atlanta has scored 27 points just once and under 20 points in five of their last seven matchups. New Orleans always shows up ready to play against Atlanta, and the reverse has not been true.

Offensively, the Falcons should do what they can to avoid Paulson Adebo, who is having a stellar season and has four interceptions and 13 pass deflections, making him exactly the kind of player who can punish a Desmond Ridder mistake. Going after Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Maye, Pete Werner, and others via Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith seems like a safer bet, with teams having more luck targeting New Orleans’ tight ends and linebackers in coverage. The Falcons don’t really have great options at receiver to test Isaac Yiadom and Alontae Taylor, but really the only genuine fear I have with Lattimore out is Adebo. Oh, and the Falcons screwing up, which is probably the bigger fear.

They can help themselves do so by running effectively. The Saints have a pretty solid run defense despite being in the bottom half of the league in yards per attempt and yards per game, but it’s not so intimidating that the Falcons should be shy about leaning on Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. While Robinson should be a focal point of the offense, Allgeier did destroy New Orleans a year ago, with 17 carries for 139 yards and a touchdown in Desmond Ridder’s first start. The Saints also quietly have a real weakness against scrambling quarterbacks, with one of the worst marks in the league this year after finishing with one of the worst marks last year, giving Ridder an opportunity to test them with his legs. That will be particularly key in the red zone, where Ridder’s keepers have been pretty effective. The Saints just let the Vikings put up 24 first half points against them; a Falcons offense that shows up might be able to do some damage, as well.

Defensively, Atlanta knows the challenge well here. Keeping Hill in check is probably very near to priority #1, given that his deep passes and frustrating runs have been killing the Falcons defense for years now. They’ll have to try to get pressure on Derek Carr, who has the 25th-best Pro Football Focus grade against pressure in the NFL and is not mobile or savvy enough to avoid sacks on a regular basis. Carr, like Ridder, is also a frequent fumbler under pressure, really underscoring how important it is for Atlanta to be able to get home in a way they simply haven’t done often enough in recent weeks. The collection of weapons here can pose problems—Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill against Richie Grant and Atlanta’s linebackers worries me—but the Falcons do have the corner trio to limit the damage from the Saints’ depleted wide receiver corps if they can get some semblance of pressure.

They also should be able to contain Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams. As good as Kamara has been in his career, he only has a small handful of great games against Atlanta, and none of those came in 2022. Kamara’s numbers have been modest this year and the Falcons’ run defense has remained stout—aside from containing scrambling quarterbacks, which is not a major concern this week unless Hill is under center—and I do think the Saints will have to win this game through the air and with Hill-related skulduggery.

What’s the recipe, then? An all-too-familiar one, really. If the Falcons can limit their big mistakes, play fundamentally sound football, and play to their strengths on offense by running effectively and hitting a handful of big plays through the air, it’s the kind of game they can certainly triumph in, albeit one that’s likely to be a nail-biter and a frustrating Sunday. If they play like they have much of the season, with all the big and little problems that implies, they’re likely to lose and the season is pretty much toast. We’re about to find out if the Falcons can emerge from the bye rest and reset with solutions to those problems, or if even in the biggest moment against their biggest rivals, the 2023 team is the exact kind of rolling disaster they’ve shown to be throughout the year.