What to make of Chargers HC Brandon Staley’s fourth-down decision-making heading into 2023

Brandon Staley’s fourth-down decisions have always been a hot topic. In 2021, Staley roared onto the scene with a fairly aggressive approach relative to the rest of the league. The Chargers attempted the fourth-most 4th downs in the league.

Los Angeles was also very efficient at converting fourth downs in Staley’s first season. They converted 64.7% of their attempts, which was good enough for fourth in the league. Point blank: Staley’s 2021 Chargers were aggressive, but rightfully so.

However, Staley obviously had his detractors. Despite going 6 for 7 on 4th down in the Chargers’ Week 18 contest with the Raiders with a playoff berth on the line, the one conversion missed was from LA’s territory in the second quarter. It allowed Las Vegas to score a field goal that Staley skeptics would argue was the difference in the game.

In 2022, the Chargers were more conservative on 4th down relative to the Staley standard established in year one. They attempted 29 out of 145 total fourth downs last season. That’s a 20% attempt rate which was down from 2021’s 28.1%. LA also experienced the double-edged sword of season-to-season variance in the league. They converted 51.7% of their 4th downs in 2022 relative to the aforementioned 64.7% in Staley’s first season.

Brandon Staley would go on to explain in his season-ending press conference that the 4th down philosophy change was multipronged:

Brandon Staley pointed to the injuries on offense and the improvement on special teams as factors that led to a more conservative approach on 4th downs in 2022.

— Guilty As Charged Podcast (@GACPodcast17) January 18, 2023

The Chargers dealt with impact injuries on offense, ranging from Justin Herbert to the offensive line and especially the receiver room. It goes without saying that fourth-down attempts are harder to be confident in without the right personnel.

The special teams boost is perhaps the biggest factor. Ryan Ficken turned the most maligned Chargers’ unit into a top 10 group in Rick Gosselin’s annual rankings.  JK Scott also might’ve changed the equation on fourth-down decisions with longer hangtime punts that led to fewer return opportunities.

2023 could prove to be the true test of whether “4th and Staley” still holds weight. The Chargers should have their ideal personnel more often. They will certainly have their handpicked offensive coordinator leading the play-calling charge in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Special teams, in theory, should remain in the top half of the league.

2022’s decrease in 4th down intensity and efficiency came after a period in which Staley received significant pushback as a rookie head coach for his decision-making. 2023 could potentially serve as a sample size in proving whether or not last season was a result of Staley waning in the face of media pressure.

Staley’s fourth-down decisions and the offensive efficiency on those plays in 2023 will be critical to the Chargers’ success.