What would moving on from Von Miller look like for Buffalo Bills’ salary cap?

Can the Bills cut or trade Von Miller’s contract this offseason? We have the salary cap implications.

Earlier this month, we took at look at Stefon Diggs and his contract. I’d always planned on doing a similar article for Buffalo Bills’ defensive end Von Miller, but a good chunk of the comments included people asking for the Miller numbers.

I think it’s unlikely the Bills move on from either Miller or Diggs, for the record. Here are some numbers why. The financial implications would be massive. Let’s dive in.

There is a March 18 deadline

Like Diggs, Miller’s salary for 2024 will fully guarantee on March 18th. Right now, only $10.71 million is guaranteed, but on March 18th, nearly $6.5 million more becomes fully guaranteed.

If they were to trade him after March 18, the new team would inherit the guaranteed money or negotiate a new contract before the season starts. Once that salary guarantees, Buffalo won’t release him (for performance reasons anyway), since they’d be on the hook for the contract money whether he was on the team or not.

So much dead-cap money

Miller has been paid tens of millions of dollars in bonuses that have yet to be accounted for on the Bills’ cap. Known as his dead-cap hit, this would accelerate onto the 2024 cap if he’s moved off the roster by trade, release, or retirement. Those hits are currently set to be collectively accounted for over the next four seasons.

If he’s released before that new guaranteed money kicks in, his dead-cap hit would be $32.5 million. After March 18, it would be $39 million.

This is why restructuring contracts to push the cap hit into future seasons limits a team’s flexibility down the line. It’s also why I opined that the Bills shouldn’t restructure Miller’s contract this offseason, so as to leave more flexibility in the 2025 offseason if he doesn’t rebound.

For reference, incurring a $39 million dead-cap hit would be the third-largest in NFL history, just a smidge behind Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. The Bills don’t want to add that to their 2024 salary cap, as they are currently projected to be more than $50 million over.

Releasing or trading Miller now is salary-cap possible

So if the Bills can’t add a $32.5 million cap hit, how can they trade or release Von Miller?

In his current salary cap number, Miller accounts for roughly $23.8 million in cap space, so a release/trade would “only” add $8.7 million to their cap commitment. It’s something they could absorb if they really wanted to. Like, really wanted to.

If they were able to trade him, the new team must be willing to take on Miller and his soon-to-be-guaranteed $17 million salary in 2024 or negotiate some sort of new deal with the pass rusher.

Post-June 1 release is another option

Another option would be to designate Miller as a post-June 1 release. It’s an accounting tool that would allow them to release Miller prior to his March 18 contract guarantee deadline. He would still count on the cap at his current cap figure of $23.784 million until June 1. On that date, $15.4 million of cap space would become available for 2024 by shifting to 2025.

The problem with that move is that the cap relief is so late, the Bills wouldn’t have many options to spend that cap amount on impact players. The best free agents would all be off the board in March, April, and May.

If they waited until June to trade him, it would have the same effect of clearing $15.4 million in 2024 cap space.

What should they do?

I have no insight into the legal allegations against Miller, so I’ll just operate as if that isn’t going to factor in here.

Miller wasn’t good enough last season, but they don’t have very many pass-rush options. Leonard Floyd, A.J. Epenesa, and Shaq Lawson are all free agents in addition to a bunch of defensive tackles. They probably hope he can get back to his form nearly two years following his injury with a full offseason of ramp up.

I think the Bills should keep Miller in 2024 on his current contract while drafting a new pass rusher in the middle rounds. Greg Rousseau is ready to be thrown into the deep end and Kingsley Jonathan is a depth option, but they need to add some rotational pieces. Re-signing Lawson to a cheap one-year deal and drafting a developmental potential heir is a good start.

If they feel like they have to move on from Miller, they should release him with a post-June 1 designation prior to March 18. After his 2023 season, no team is going to want to trade for Miller’s contract, so the best accounting for the cap space would be to spread it over two years.