Why Alvin Kamara will be elite again

The addition of new OC Klint Kubiak will see Kamara with a different role in 2024.

Running back Alvin Kamara is coming off one of his worst seasons as a pro. The seven-year veteran ran for 694 yards (the lowest of his career) and averaged just 3.9 yards a carry (second lowest of his career). Kamara’s biggest impact comes in the receiving game. In 2023 he caught 75 passes, which is up to par with his other great seasons, but the problem is how he was used. Kamara’s role felt more like a safety net than a playmaker as his 75 receptions went for an average of 6.2 yards. He averaged 8.7 yards a reception in his first six seasons.

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is coming off one of his best seasons in the league. McCaffrey had career-bests in rushing yards, yards per attempt, and touchdowns. He also won the Offensive Player of The Year award for the 2023 season.

Why McCaffrey is succeeding

McCaffrey is a very talented back and has seen success with other systems, but Kamara, who’s had success in this same Saints system before, has been on a steady decline. So why is McCaffrey earning OPOY awards and Kamara is coming off his worst year?

Plays with motion

The New Orleans Saints have moved on from offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael and are hiring 49ers passing game coordinator Klint Kubiak. They parted ways with Carmichael after he failed to adapt to a new offense. One of Carmichael’s biggest flaws was the lack of motion. New Orleans ran plays with motion only 366 times, which the 49ers more than doubled with 753. The new age of offenses often uses motion to switch up opposing defenses along with helping determine coverage presnap.

The NFL has evolved a lot since the type of offense Carmichael ran had success. In 2017, the Los Angeles Rams led the league in percent of motion plays with 9%. In 2023, 9% would have you ranked 30th in the league.

The correlation between the increased motion before the snap and offense output is tight. The top five teams in snapmotion % were all in the top 10 points per game and the top 15 yards per game.

Kubiak’s arrival in New Orleans will bring a new look to the offense that features motion as a strength. The addition of motion to the Saints’ offense will give Kamara favorable mismatches with opposing linebackers and better playmaking opportunities.

Designed play calls

Kamara’s impact as a receiver felt disappointing as his 75 receptions resulted in only 466 yards and one touchdown.

There were many reports during training camp about Kamara practicing routes with the wide receivers alongside how much more polished his route running was. This hype died out quickly when he returned from suspension and caught 13 passes that resulted in 33 yards. This return game was an early tell on how he would be used.

The Saints offense didn’t have many plays designed for Kamara and rather opted to use him as a safe checkdown for Derek Carr. New OC Klint Kubiak is coming from an offense that heavily utilized Christian McCaffrey’s strengths rather than using him as a safety net. Whether it’s pre-snap motion getting favorable matchups or it’s designed play calls that would allow him to use his elite route running from the backfield, Kamara will have a bigger impact as a receiver in 2024.

Red Zone problems

Kamara had the second-lowest amount of touchdowns of his career in 2023, with the only season scoring less being 2022. One of the biggest factors keeping Kamara out of the endzone was his red zone snap percentage. Kamara was in on snaps within 20 yards of the endzone just 67% of the time. His snaps within five yards of the endzone falls to 59%. In comparison, Christian McCaffrey’s snap percentages are 87% within 20 and 89% within five.

The Saints struggled to run in the red zone throughout the 2023 season with the most favorable of plays being a Taysom Hill QB power with DT Khalen Saunders as a lead blocker. Running back Jamaal Williams, who scored 17 touchdowns with the Detroit Lions just a year prior, only rushed for one touchdown with New Orleans in 2023, and that was in the last minute of the season.

The Saints faced issues within 20 yards of the end zone throughout the season and the addition of Klint Kubiak will be a big help in that department. The 49ers ranked as the best team in the red zone in 2023 while the Saints ranked 18th.

Why Kamara will be elite again in 2024

The Saints offense has struggled to find their feet once former head coach Sean Payton left. Pete Carmichael lacked the creativity and failed to adapt to be a playcaller in 2023. New OC Klint Kubiak is coming from one of the top offenses that has seen success year in and year out. New Orleans made it a priority to get their new OC from the Shannahan-McVay coaching tree.

Kubiak’s arrival will bring over the things that helped make CMC successful to New Orleans. The addition of motion before the snap, more plays getting Kamara involved, and plays specifically designed to put the ball in Kamara’s hands will put him in prime position to mimic his former All-Pro seasons.

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