Why tagging Bryce Huff is a necessity for the NY Jets

Whether they plan to sign him or not, the New York Jets must tag Bryce Huff

The No. 1 question most New York Jets fans will be asking this offseason is what the team will do with Bryce Huff.

Huff is a Jets fan favorite simply because he came out of nowhere. The 2020 undrafted free agent salvaged a miserable draft class by posting a 20.3% pressure rate over the past two seasons. His 10 sacks on 42% of the Jets’ defensive snaps showcased his ability to wreck a passing game.

Huff has already made clear that he’s going where the money and playing time take him. The Jets have made seemingly clear that neither of those will be in New York. Therefore, the situation is heading toward an inexorable conclusion: Huff will not be a Jet in 2024.

Still, how that happens can make a big difference. Will the Jets allow one of the most productive pass rushers in the NFL to leave for nothing, or will they make sure to get something in return?

The Jets must tag Bryce Huff

There is a narrative circulating in Jets circles that Huff will not be tradable if the Jets tag him. His official NFL position is outside linebacker, which would make his tag $21.9 million. He’s unlikely to garner that kind of contract, so why would any team trade for him under those circumstances?

The answer is simple: franchise-tagged players who are then traded often end up making less than the tag amount. They sacrifice a higher one-year value for longer-term job security, which is critical for any NFL player. Therefore, if the Jets were to tag Huff, a tag-and-trade scenario would be very likely. Even if Huff’s final dollar amount would not be close to $21.9 million per season, the Jets would give him the freedom to negotiate a contract with teams before any trade.

There is little reason to be concerned that the Jets would get stuck with Huff for $21.9 million. There’s a good chance Huff would refuse to sign the tag given his desire for the best deal available. Additionally, NFL teams are starving for elite edge rushers. Teams like the Commanders and Bears, flush with cap space and a need for an edge rusher, would be the starting point for any trade discussions.

Franchise tag vs. transition tag

The regular franchise tag is exclusive, meaning only the tagging team can negotiate an extension with the player. By contrast, the transition tag, or non-exclusive tag, allows the player to negotiate a contract with other teams. The tagging team then has the right to match the contract, forcing the player to return to them, or to let the player go without any compensation.

The exclusive-rights tag makes more sense for Huff to be able to trade him. However, the transition tag is $18.6 million, which is closer to his likely value on the market. Furthermore, it allows the Jets to decide whether they want to match his contract offers or not. Even if they plan on letting Huff go, they should place the transition tag on him.

Additionally, they could still theoretically try to trade him if a team gives him an offer sheet. He may prefer to play with a different team for more playing time over remaining with the Jets for the same dollar amount.

Trade value

How much the Jets could get in return for Huff is a different story. Can they get a second-round pick for him under the tag? Possibly not, but Montez Sweat returned a second-rounder despite less pass-rushing efficiency than Huff. Even a third-rounder would at least give the Jets more draft capital when they are already down their second-round pick due to the Rodgers trade.

Letting him go

If the Jets let Huff walk without a tag, their only return is a 2025 compensatory pick. Even that is uncertain, though.

A common misconception is that a UDFA is ineligible for a compensatory pick. That is inaccurate. Any player who becomes an unrestricted free agent as a result of their contract expiring and signs with a new team before May 1 is eligible for compensation (referred to as a compensatory free agent or CFA) depending on their ranking at their position, among other things. Huff’s one-year restricted free agent tender is expiring, making him an unrestricted free agent.

However, although Huff is a CFA, whether the Jets receive compensation for him depends on the other free agents they sign. The comp pick formula is complicated, but the basic idea is that a team gets compensation for losing any CFA whose value they did not roughly match with another CFA signing. Therefore, if the Jets sign another CFA with approximately the same value as Huff, they can lose out on a compensatory pick.

To illustrate the point, here are the Jets’ potential comp picks for 2024.

• CFAs lost: Sheldon Rankins, Nathan Shepherd, Nate Herbig, Mike White, Dan Feeney
• CFAs gained: Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman

Based on their contracts, Lazard and Hardman canceled out Rankins and Shepherd. However, the Jets did not sign any CFAs to cancel out Herbig, White, and Feeney. Therefore, according to Over the Cap, they are eligible for three seventh-round comp picks this offseason. (NFL.com projected a sixth-rounder for Herbig last offseason, but Over the Cap may be more updated.)

The Jets also signed Wes Schweitzer and Thomas Morstead, but neither was a CFA and did not count for the formula.

Over the Cap provides more details about the comp pick formula here.

When is the return?

A key part of this equation is when the compensation occurs. For a comp pick, the Jets would not get the draft return until 2025. Even though Huff is likely to bring back a third-round pick, the Jets desperately need more draft capital if they want to compete in 2024. Therefore, executing a tag-and-trade makes more sense to bring back at least one pick for the 2024 draft.

Given this picture, tagging Huff should be a certainty this offseason. If Huff’s market is closer to the $15 million range, the Jets should give strong consideration to offering him an extension given what he means to their pass rush. If not, they should still trade him and return a minimum of a third-round pick, perhaps with another mid-to-late-rounder thrown in or even a higher pick.

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