Would Bucs Draft A First-Round QB If One Fell To No. 19?

The Bucs bolstered the quarterback position during the first week of free agency by signing veteran Baker Mayfield to a one-year, prove-it deal worth $4 million. The contract, which can earn Mayfield as much as $8.5 million with incentives, is in line with the “value” signing plan Bucs general manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles spoke about at the NFL Scouting Combine.

And given its modest base salary, that contract does not automatically make Mayfield the starter over inexperienced third-year quarterback Kyle Trask. While Mayfield’s 69 games worth of NFL starts does give him an edge heading into offseason workouts, there will be an open quarterback competition between he and Trask.

That begs the question, would the Bucs consider drafting another quarterback if one fell to them in the first round?

NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah has Tampa Bay drafting Will Levis after the Kentucky quarterback fell to the team at No. 19 in his latest NFL mock draft. Jeremiah writes: “If Levis started to fall, I believe a team like Tampa Bay would trade up to get him. In this scenario, he falls right into their lap. Levis would compete with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask for the starting job.”

Would the Bucs entertain the idea of a three-way competition for the starting QB job? After all, quarterback is the most important position in football and the sooner Tampa Bay can find a good one, the sooner the Bucs will become consistent winners and perennial playoff contenders again.

But is three quarterbacks competing for a starting job one too many? Probably, which is why I think the Bucs would pass on Levis if he fell to the team at No. 19 in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Bucs truly don’t know what they have in Trask, a former second-round pick. And selecting Levis wouldn’t exactly help them find out if the two years the Bucs invested in him – not to mention the premium draft pick – was worth it.

New Bucs Offense To Learn, Not Enough Reps

It’s one thing to have a head-to-head battle like the Bucs are setting up between Mayfield and Trask during the OTAs, mini-camps, training camp and the preseason. Creating a battle royale situation with three QBs becomes cumbersome because there are not enough reps to split three ways to give each passer the chance to master the new offense and separate himself from the competition.

To illustrate this, let’s say that in a single practice the QBs have 100 passes to split up between three of them. Typically, a starter might get 60 passes, the backup gets 30 and the third-stringer gets 10. In a two-way QB battle, the reps might get split up 45-45 with the third-stringer getting the final 10. Yet, if it’s a three-way competition, the reps would have to be split evenly at 33 apiece.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: Cliff Welch//PR

So, if Levis was drafted by the Bucs, that means that Mayfield and Trask would get about a dozen fewer throws than if it was just a two-man race. Not to mention, there are only three preseason games now in the NFL, not four. That eliminates about 70 more preseason plays. If it becomes a tight, three-man race with no clear-cut starter, having fewer reps to evaluate would lead to a tougher decision by the coaches, and perhaps the wrong one.

Finding the right starter is just one of the goals in training camp. But just as important is adequately preparing the starter for the regular season with as many reps as possible. A three-way QB competition while the entire offense is learning Dave Canales’ new system would only slow down the process of digesting the playbook and reduce the number of reps that Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage have with the eventual starter.

Too Many Holes On Bucs 2023 Roster

Some criticized the Bucs for using a second-round pick on Kyle Trask in 2021 while the team’s Super Bowl window was still open and Tom Brady was still under center. Trask was viewed as a luxury pick by some. But there was some logic in trying to find the eventual replacement for Brady and some merit to exposing him to the greatest quarterback of all time for two years.

Given that the Bucs still don’t know what they have in Trask or if Mayfield can regain his 2020 form when he threw for 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions while leading Cleveland to the playoffs with an 11-5 record, drafting another quarterback this year would be even more of a luxury pick.

A quarterback like Levis would automatically be under more pressure to win the starting job due to his draft status. And even though all three quarterbacks would be learning Dave Canales’ new offense at the same time, Mayfield and Trask would have the benefit of more experience having been in multiple training camps already.

Bucs QB Kyle Trask – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Due to limited salary cap room this year, the Bucs only have 57 players on the roster right now. That’s 33 shy of the 90-man offseason roster limit. Without much cap room to spend on a lot of other free agents, the Bucs have several needs they must fill in the draft.

Tampa Bay only has two safeties – Antoine Winfield Jr. and backup Nolan Turner – on the current roster. The Bucs will also need to draft an offensive lineman with a premium pick as they jettisoned two starters this offseason in left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason. Drafting another edge rusher early in case Shaq Barrett doesn’t return to form from his torn Achilles or Joe Tryon-Shoyinka doesn’t pan out seems like a foregone conclusion, too.

I’m not saying the Bucs wouldn’t draft Levis – or another highly regarded quarterback if one fell to the team at No. 19 in the first round. Tampa Bay interviewed Levis, Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker at the NFL Scouting Combine. There’s also a chance the team interviewed Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young just to do its due diligence. If Tampa Bay were to draft another quarterback in the first round, the team would have to have a ton of conviction about him.

But with a roster full of holes and a new offense to learn, this might not be the best year to add another young, unproven passer and create a three-way QB competition.

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