2-Point Conversion: It’s Now Or Never For Bucs’ Playoff Push

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

The Bucs fell to 4-6 after losing to the 49ers in San Francisco for a second year in a row – this time, 27-14. Tampa Bay lost three starters to injury on Sunday and had to play several rookies in their places. Yet it’s not too late for Todd Bowles and the Bucs to rebound and make a playoff run – or even a run at a third straight NFC South title.

The Bucs travel to Indianapolis to play the 5-5 Colts next Sunday.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: It’s Now Or Never For Bucs’ Playoff Push

We all anticipated the Bucs losing to a much better and more talented 49ers team, right? We chalked this up as a loss before the Tampa Bay players and coaches boarded the plane for San Francisco, didn’t we?

So the outcome of Sunday’s 27-14 loss to the 49ers shouldn’t have come as a surprise. The Bucs played better and more competitively than they did a year ago in a 35-7 blowout loss at San Francisco. And that was with Tom Brady under center for Tampa Bay.

But no moral victories, as head coach Todd Bowles rightly pointed out after the game.

“We fought as a team again,” Bowles said. “We don’t have any moral victories. We lost and we’re pissed about it, but we’re going to fight and scrap and cut out some mistakes and be a better team because of it. We just didn’t do it today, but we’re always going to fight so that should be standard for us.”

So where do the 4-6 Bucs go from here? Tampa Bay lost ground in the NFC South with New Orleans and Atlanta both having a bye week.

But believe it or not, the race for the division title or a Wild Card playoff berth is far from over for the 4-6 Buccos. Four of Tampa Bay’s remaining seven games come against division foes.

The games against the Falcons and Saints have a double-whammy effect. A Bucs win in those games knocks the Falcons and Saints down a peg in the division simultaneously with each occurrence. Winning those two games and sweeping the Panthers is imperative for the Bucs to have a shot at winning the NFC South for a third year in a row.

It’s also imperative for head coach Todd Bowles to get his team into the playoffs to have any chance of saving his job. Winning six of the remaining seven games should be enough and would show some significant progress over last year’s 8-9 record. But that seems improbable given how mercurial this team this season.

Bucs DT Vita Vea and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photo by: USA Today

“It’s getting serious – it’s getting down to the wire,” Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. said. “Coming down to these final games, we’ve got to make sure that we get some wins under our belt so we can make this playoff push.”

Going 5-2 down the stretch even seems like – well, a stretch – given the fact that the Bucs have only won four of their first 10 games of the season. For Tampa Bay to suddenly get its act together, while necessary, seems questionable. A 9-8 record in the NFC probably gets the Bucs into the playoffs, as it did for the Seahawks last year. And 9-8 just might win the division for Tampa Bay.

The NFC South is the hot-potato division. Like last year, nobody seems to want to win it. Three different teams have been in the division lead so far (the 5-5 Saints are the current leader), and every team outside of the one-win Panthers is still a contender.

Will winning the NFC South again be enough for Todd Bowles to save his job and return in 2024? Maybe not, as I explain further in a new Pewter Pulse video that I encourage you to watch.

STATEMENT 2: Bucs Played 10 Rookies On Sunday

There was a youth movement on the field during the Bucs’ 27-14 loss to the 49ers on Sunday. Every one of the team’s 2024 draft picks who were on the active roster either played on offense or defense and not just on special teams – although not by design.

The Bucs lost both starting cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean due to injury, as well as linebacker Lavonte David, and a few rookies who have been contributors on special teams had to step in and step up on defense.

Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photo by: USA Today

The team’s top three picks – defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, right guard Cody Mauch and outside linebacker YaYa Diaby, have played regularly throughout the year. But in San Francisco, rookie inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis and rookie cornerback Josh Hayes had to fill in for David and Davis, respectively.

Hayes recorded three tackles and only allowed one catch for six yards. Dennis missed a pair of tackles, but wound up making two tackles as well. In just 17 snaps, he was nearly as productive as Devin White was. White had just three tackles on 60 plays, which is not going to help his cause when it comes to getting a new contract this offseason.

Those rookie defenders joined tight end Payne Durham and wide receivers Trey Palmer – a pair of Day 3 draft picks – and rookie Rakim Jarrett, who have been regular contributors on offense this year. A total of 10 rookies saw action versus the 49ers, including three undrafted free agents – Jarrett, safety Kaevon Merriweather and outside linebacker Markees Watts, who should have gotten more than the three snaps on defense in San Francisco.

“I thought they did well. You know, those guys came out, they flew around, made some plays, [and] they gave us a chance,” Bowles said. “The best thing about them is they’re fearless, and they don’t know any better. I thought those guys flew around pretty [well].”

The Bucs got a sneak peek at their young players, and that will help Jason Licht and the personnel department better evaluate the team’s needs in 2024 and perhaps give the coaches more confidence in the rookies moving forward.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. How Bad Was The Bucs’ West Coast Carnage?

The Bucs lost three defensive starters to injuries in the third quarter on Sunday as cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean suffered hip and ankle injuries, respectively, and inside linebacker Lavont David injured his groin. That added injury to the insult of being trounced by the 49ers, 27-14.

Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Photo by: USA Today

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles didn’t really have much of an update on those injuries during Monday afternoon’s press conference.

“They’re pretty sore right now,” Bowles said. “They’re still getting test runs so, we’ll have an answer as soon as the tests come back.”

The guess here is that all three miss the Colts game. Defensive tackles Vita Vea and Logan Hall each missed one game due to a groin injury a few weeks ago, with Vea out at Buffalo and Hall out at Houston. David will likely follow suit.

Dean had to be carted to the locker room with ice wrapped around his ankle. That could be the sign of a high ankle sprain. Even a mild ankle injury could cost Dean a game. Davis’ hip injury could also cause him to miss at least a game.

The best remedy for groin, ankle and hip injuries is rest and recovery. The Bucs might have to play without these three starters in Indianapolis on Sunday.

QUESTION 2. How Damning Was Brock Purdy’s Perfect Day vs. Bucs?

Very damning for Todd Bowles. To have Brock Perfect – that’s what we’ll call him now – literally have a perfect QB rating against Bowles’ defense in the rematch game is not a good look for a head coach who runs the defense and one who is on the hot seat.

After completing 16-of-21 passes (76.2%) for 185 yards and two touchdowns plus a rushing TD in a 35-7 win in his first NFL start, which came against the Bucs a year ago, Purdy completed 21-of-25 passes (84%) for 333 yards and three touchdowns for a perfect 158.3 QB rating on Sunday.

As if the Bucs blowing a lead with terribly soft defense in a 39-37 loss at Houston wasn’t bad enough, Purdy getting the best of Bowles and his defense once again with an even better day could come back to haunt the head coach at the end of the season. This defensive effort – or lack therof – was really the second fireable offense for Bowles this year.

We’ll see if he and the Bucs can win enough games down the stretch to overcome this loss and keep Bowles around for 2024.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Mike Evans Returns To Tampa Bay In 2024

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: USA Today

I just can’t see how Mike Evans does not re-sign with the team in the offseason. The Bucs certainly won’t be better without him next year. Whether Todd Bowles returns or there is a new head coach, whoever is coaching in Tampa Bay in 2024 will want Evans on the team because he has been a reliable 1,000-yard receiver who has dynamic, play-making ability – even at age 30 – and is capable of putting up double-digit touchdowns in any season.

And even if a team like Chicago, which is flush with salary cap space, ends up offering Evans more money, I don’t think the star receiver would leave for a bigger payday unless it is for a Super Bowl contender. Evans wants to win, but I think he wants to continue playing in Tampa Bay and finish his career as a Buccaneer even more than that.

The Bucs might let him get to free agency and see what his market is and then decide whether they want to match it or not. I might be wrong, but I’m not sure there’s going to be a robust free agent market – more than $20 million per season – for a receiver who will be 31 next year and doesn’t always have the most reliable hands. Teams don’t mind breaking the bank for star players, but given Evans’ age, that might be a concern for teams looking to shell out money for younger weapons.

PREDICTION 2: Bucs Actually Make The Playoffs, And Probably Win The Division

As strange as it sounds, Tampa Bay has the most talented roster, and the best quarterback in the division – despite the team’s 4-6 record. The Bucs should win the division again because the NFC South is weak for another year. Winning five of seven games will be daunting for a team that has not even won three games in a row at any point in the season.

Yet I think Tampa Bay ends up winning a division that nobody seems to want to win. Call me crazy. Let’s see what happens in December and January.

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