3 questions remaining for Rams before the draft

Without Aaron Donald for the first time in over a decade, how will Rams address these questions?

It’s not often in their entire careers that an NFL general manager will suffer a loss as great as the one left by Aaron Donald when he retired last week. They will say (all the time) that “You can’t replace Aaron Donald!”

Yeah, we know. But you know that the Rams…have to…replace Aaron Donald, right?

Like that’s a spot on the 90-man and 53-man roster that has to be filled with a defensive tackle. That’s one way that you have to replace him. Literally, you have to do it.

Then there’s the pass rush. Where is it coming from? If you get 50% of the production from the next person who plays the position, that’s still kind of serviceable because Donald was that good. If you get 75%, you’re in good hands. If you get 90%, maybe you can even play defense at a similar-ish level.

If you get 25%, which is like going from John Elway to Brian Griese or Jake Plummer maybe, then you might be in trouble. So we all do realize that the Rams have to replace Aaron Donald, right? It’s not as fun as the very dramatic, “You can never replace Aaron Donald!!!”

We know, but…also that’s what teams have to do with any player who leaves.

The loss of Donald leaves several questions, like how will the Rams generate a similar pass rush, what will they do with the cap space they have left, and what’s next for L.A.’s other two veteran stars?

What will come of the pass rush?

Without Donald, the defensive line looks like this: DE Desjuan Johnson, NT Bobby Brown III, DT Kobie Turner, backup DT Cory Durden

That’s it.

The edge rushers look like this: OLB Byron Young, OLB Michael Hoecht, OLB Ochaun Mathis, OLB Nick Hampton, OLB Keir Thomas, OLB Zach VanValkenburg

Can Hoecht, Young, Mathis, and Hampton consistently get to the quarterback without a Hall of Famer drawing two or three blockers in the middle of the offensive line?

Some teams generate pressure with their linebackers. Can the Rams do that with Ernest Jones and Christian Rozeboom?

L.A.’s front-seven has a much different look and feel without Donald and people who have been arguing for years that players like Turner and Young would not get any sacks without AD next to them will at least have their chance to be proven right or wrong. I think it is clear that the loss of Donald is not just his 8-12 sacks, but also the loss of complementary sacks and opportunities and pressures that simply wouldn’t have happened without him.

Who will create that pressure?

Kobie Turner had nine sacks as a rookie. That’s incredible. Is he going to get more than that without Donald? Is he going to get the same amount? Is he going to get more than 20 pressures, his rookie season total? What about Young and Hoecht? How many games can Brown play in this season?

Defensive line is a huge priority but as you’ll see, hardly the only one.

What moves are left with $20 million?

According to OvertheCap, the Rams have $20.7 million in remaining cap space. That’s roughly middle-of-the-league right now. However, the Rams only have 59 players under contract for 2024, which is 31 under the number they will need for training camp. They have to have money allocated for the draft, for the practice squad, for injury considerations, and more.

The Rams have $20 million for 30ish players.

L.A. drafted 14 players last year and they have 11 picks this year. It seems clear that they will pick at least 11 players, if not trade down for more. They will need low-cost rookies to fill out the roster again and that means we could even see the Rams trade out of the first round again if they’re not in love with any prospects remaining on the board. Imagine if a team like the Commanders, who possess picks 36 and 40 at the top of round two, call Les Snead and offer 36, 67, and 139 for the chance to move up to 10.

The Rams would go from 19 to 36, but would have early picks in the third and fifth rounds added to the ledger. Then they go from 11 picks to 13 picks.

If the Rams had fewer picks last year, maybe they never get Puka Nacua. If they didn’t have two third round picks, they wouldn’t have had both Kobie Turner and Byron Young.

As much as the $20 million can look like a carrot on a stick for a free agent or trade acquisition, any such move would require L.A. to create cap space by restructuring, trading, or releasing a player. For example, the Rams would add $20 million of cap space if they restructured Matthew Stafford’s deal. That would reduce his cap hit to $30 million this year but increase it to $60 million next year.

The Rams are already low on cap space in 2025.

The $20 million they currently have has to go to filling out the rest of the roster with 31 additional players, not just one.

Are Rams prepared for life after Stafford and Kupp?

Speaking of two potential opportunities to create cap space, it is a risk for L.A. to restructure someone like Cooper Kupp because he’s 31 and unfortunately a perennial injury risk. Kupp missed half of the season in 2022 and the first four games of 2023.

The Rams could restructure Kupp’s contract to save $12.5 million but if they do that his cap hit in 2025 goes from $30 million to $36 million. That leaves a lot of dead money on the already-tight 2025 budget if L.A. sees Kupp retire or has to release him. With Donald retiring this year, the prospect of Stafford and Kupp being next has to be on the mind of every Rams in the next offseason or two. That’s just the nature of the business, and of aging.

The Rams signed Carson Wentz in the middle of last season and that seemed like Sean McVay’s potential bridge to a future after Stafford because maybe the former second overall pick had just been struggling with injuries and health. Maybe he needed a change of scenery. Maybe McVay could unlock Wentz like he unlocked Baker Mayfield.

Maybe not.

Wentz was not retained in free agency, so much so that the team signed someone even less inspiring in Jimmy Garoppolo. Only 32, it is still hard to believe that Garoppolo has a future in the league as a starting quarterback. Since being drafted the same year as Donald, Garoppolo has played two career “full” seasons. (In quotes because he once played 15 out of 17 games, so he’s only really played one full season.)

The Rams do not have a future after Stafford. Stetson Bennett hasn’t given us any reason yet to think that he’s going to be a day three steal. That’s just how it is: Stafford is it.

At receiver, L.A. has Puka Nacua and that’s great. They do not have a future after Kupp retires or is unable to produce, however. Puka is only one receiver and if there’s no Kupp, then the two becomes Demarcus Robinson, the three becomes Tutu Atwell, the four becomes Ben Skowronek. There are only so many passes Stafford can throw to Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson.

Picking a receiver early in the 2024 draft has to be a consideration because not only is Puka the lone player at the position under 30 who seems like he has a bright future, he could also miss time. Puka is a physical, violent receiver who has had injuries in his college past too.

I would be surprised if the Rams were trying to make a play for someone like Tee Higgins, at least not before the season, because of what was previously said about their cap space. Restructuring Kupp or Stafford to add Higgins would be a true “all-in” move and I don’t think it sounds like a great idea to go all-in when you’re not even sure how the front-seven and defense will react to the loss of Aaron Donald.