Are The Bucs Already Being Counted Out In The NFC South?

It’s been the offseason of re-signings for the Bucs that have put the team in position to compete for the NFC South title again and make a playoff run. Every year the goal for the organization is to win the Super Bowl, so while winning a fourth straight division championship – and the automatic home playoff game that comes with it – is a goal, what also matters is how Tampa Bay compares to the rest of the league.

Getting into the postseason is one thing. Advancing in the playoffs is another.

For a quick refresher of this offseason, Tampa Bay re-signed Pro Bowl quarterback Baker Mayfield, Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans, inside linebacker Lavonte David, kicker Chase McLaughlin and placed the franchise tag on All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. They’ve also made other important new signings as well with the biggest one being the return of Jordan Whitehead at strong safety.

The Bucs also signed interior offensive linemen Ben Bredeson and Sua Opeta to provide a new competition at center and left guard, respectively, and added Bryce Hall and Tavierre Thomas at cornerback to round out the depth behind Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum and nickel cornerback Christian Izien.

Bucs’ Ranking Is Surprising

With the main focus re-signing Tampa Bay’s own players to a team that made it to the divisional round of the postseason last year, was that enough to make the Bucs a contender? In a post-free agency power rankings by Jarrett Bailey at the Touchdown Wire, Bailey has Tampa Bay ranked at 21 overall out of 32 teams. That is the worst ranking out of any team that made the playoffs the year before.

This is what was said about the Bucs’ outlook in 2024:

‘Tip of the cap to Baker Mayfield for getting paid after the best year of his career and his second career playoff win. I do question if the Bucs can repeat that success, though, especially without Dave Canales. At the very least, they’ll be competitive week in and week out. At most, they’ll be a playoff team once again.”

It’s certainly fair to wonder if Mayfield can maintain his level of play for another season. We’ve seen other quarterbacks have great seasons in “prove-it” years, attempting to get a new contract where the results were less favored after a deal was signed. Take the Giants’ Daniel Jones, the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts and the Seahawks’ Geno Smith for example.

In 2022, Jones threw for over 3,000 yards with 15 touchdowns as the Giants went 9-7-1, earning a Wild Card spot and defeating the Vikings in the first round. Jones was signed to a four-year, $160 million contract that offseason. But the next year he went 1-5 as a starter, throwing six interceptions, which was one more than he had all season. Jones also tore his ACL and was out for the season after those six games.

Hurts and Smith aren’t as harrowing tales as Jones was. But after a Super Bowl appearance in 2022, Hurts was rewarded with a five-year, $255 million contract from Philadelphia. His first year under that deal started out great as Philadelphia raced out to a 10-1 record, but Hurts started playing through injury and the Eagles went 1-6 down the stretch of the regular season before the Bucs dismantled them, 32-9, in the Wild Card playoffs.

Mayfield and Smith have been compared time and again since they each needed to revive their careers in a new location – and both worked with Canales. After his resurgence with over 4,000 yards, 30 touchdowns and 9-8 record to make the postseason, Smith was given a three-year, $75 million deal by the Seahawks. It wasn’t a drastic fall off, but his numbers declined a bit last season as he threw for 3,624 and 20 touchdowns as Seattle went 8-9 and didn’t reach the postseason.

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Where I disagree with Bailey’s statement regarding the Bucs is the reference to how much of an impact losing Canales could be for Tampa bay. There’s certainly going to be adjustments with Liam Coen as the team’s new offensive coordinator, but his system isn’t wildly different than what Canales ran. Plus, he’s already worked with Mayfield before in Los Angeles.

Coen is also a more polished play-caller having experience in that role with the University of Kentucky and briefly for the Rams.

Another aspect that can’t be overlooked is that this will be the second year together with Mayfield throwing to Mike Evans. His 1,255 receiving yards were Evans’ most since 2018, and his 13 touchdowns were tied for the league lead and the second highest in his career. One can only imagine what Mayfield and Evans can do in a second season after they’ve built up so much continuity.

Are The Falcons Runaway Favorites?

Although ranked 21st in the Touchdown Wire rankings, Tampa Bay was the second best among all NFC South teams. In first place was Atlanta, coming in at No. 7. These were Bailey Jarrett’s comments on the Falcons:

Bucs OLB Anthony Nelson and Vikings QB Kirk Cousins – Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

“The Falcons saw the roster they had at hand, and went out to get their quarterback to bring it all together. Adding Kirk Cousins to an offense that already had a skill group of Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, plus a defense that was fifth in success rate, makes Atlanta a team that can contend for a Super Bowl.”

The Falcons signing Cousins was arguably the biggest move by any team this offseason. On paper, it’s reasonable to see why the Falcons could be the NFC South favorite. With that said, it does feel odd that the Bucs would once again be considered an underdog in their own division given their recent history of winning the NFC South three years in a row.

Most doubted the Bucs last year and they came out on top. All the pressure is going to be on Cousins and the Falcons this year, and Cousins hasn’t been the guy to excel in high profile situations.

The 35-year old quarterback has a terrible record in primetime games, and just one career playoff win in four starts. Now all of a sudden he’s just going to buck that trend? How much better is this Atlanta team than some of the teams he was on in Minnesota?

There’s no doubt the Falcons improved. They really needed a quarterback.

Since Mayfield arrived in Tampa, the Bucs have been at their best when they’ve been counted out. Tampa Bay might have everyone right where the team wants them because it seems like the doubters are starting to come out in full force again.