Bruce Nolan’s 2024 mock draft for the Buffalo Bills

My best (using that term lightly) guess at all seven rounds for the Bills

Most mock drafts aren’t intended to be predictive. As much as the NFL community can sometimes say they hate the exercises where media members or analysts conjure up fictional outcomes to the NFL Draft, mock drafts remain incredibly popular methods of generating web traffic because they get clicked on.

People want to scroll through, see who their team picked in the hypothetical rumination, and then react to it. Sometimes they don’t even know the player at all and are reacting to the position only. Sometimes they’re reacting based upon what they just saw at the NFL Scouting Combine. Sometimes they’re reacting based upon the school the prospect attended.

But they’re reacting.

People can say they despise mock drafts all they want — but the public reacts to them and, as such, they keep coming.

Most of them, however, aren’t even trying to tell you what the author thinks your team will do. They’re offering up different possibilities based upon the domino effect of one or a few things happening in the draft that people may not have thought about, creating a domino effect throughout the rest of the selections.

The goal of the mock drafts may change during the week of the actual event, but that truth above remains. Anyone who’s ever tried to create a mock draft will tell you that if you mess with a previously held “lock” in the top 10 (or even two of them), the remainder of your draft becomes a hilarious scramble to line up teams with players where nothing feels quite like it fits the way it’s supposed to.

But that’s how it goes every year.

The reason why mock drafts are always so massively off in reality is that one or two misses high creates a ripple effect where every single miss inevitably becomes two misses. (If you miss on a player/team combination, unless that player goes undrafted, you will then have that player drafted by another team later, creating another player/team combo miss.)

Combine that with players you thought would go higher going lower (often a result of medical evaluations not known to the general public until later) and players you thought would go lower going higher, and you have a recipe for the least-predictive predictive mock draft.

We’re gonna give it a shot anyway.

Using only the information I have at the time of this writing (Monday, April 22 at 8 AM EDT), here’s my best guess at how it will go down over the weekend in Detroit, MI:

Round 1

Pick 1.01 — Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB (USC)

Pick 1.02 — Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB (LSU)

Pick 1.03 — New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB (UNC)

Pick 1.04 — PROJECTED TRADE — Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, QB (Michigan)

Pick 1.05 — Los Angeles Chargers: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (Ohio State)

Pick 1.06 — New York Giants: Rome Odunze, WR (Washington)

Pick 1.07 — PROJECTED TRADE — Arizona Cardinals: Malik Nabers, WR (LSU)

Pick 1.08 — Atlanta Falcons: Byron Murphy II, DT (Texas)

Pick 1.09 — Chicago Bears: Adonai Mitchell, WR (Texas)

Pick 1.10 — New York Jets: Joe Alt, OT (Notre Dame)

Pick 1.11 — PROJECTED TRADE — Tennessee Titans: JC Latham, OT (Alabama)

Pick 1.12 — Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB (Oregon)

Pick 1.13 — Las Vegas Raiders: Brian Thomas Jr., WR (LSU)

Pick 1.14 — New Orleans Saints: Taliese Fuaga, OT (Oregon State)

Pick 1.15 — Indianapolis Colts: Brock Bowers, TE (Georgia)

Pick 1.16 — PROJECTED TRADE — Philadelphia Eagles: Quinyon Mitchell, CB (Toledo)

Pick 1.17 – Jacksonville Jaguars: Cooper DeJean, CB (Iowa)

Pick 1.18 — Cincinnati Bengals: Terrion Arnold, CB (Alabama)

Pick 1.19 — Los Angeles Rams: Dallas Turner, EDGE (Alabama)

Pick 1.20 — Pittsburgh Steelers: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT (Penn State)

Pick 1.21 — Miami Dolphins: Laiatu Latu, EDGE (UCLA)

Pick 1.22 — PROJECTED TRADE — Seattle Seahawks: Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL (Oregon)

Pick 1.23 — PROJECTED TRADE — Arizona Cardinals: Amarius Mims, OT (Georgia)

Pick 1.24 — Dallas Cowboys: Graham Barton, IOL (Duke)

Pick 1.25 — Green Bay Packers: Nate Wiggins, CB (Clemson)

Pick 1.26 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Darius Robinson, DL (Missouri)

Pick 1.27 — PROJECTED TRADE — Washington Commanders: Tyler Guyton, OT (Alabama)

Pick 1.28 — PROJECTED TRADE — Las Vegas Raiders: Michael Penix, QB (Washington)

Projecting the Bills to do something they’ve never done since Brandon Beane became the Buffalo’s general manager (trade down in the first round) is dangerous, but I’m going with it here because the depth of the draft at the Bills’ positions of need aligns with them wanting to pick multiple times on Day 2.

Buffalo picks up 2-44, 3-77, and a 2025 fourth-round pick in exchange for 1-28 and 6-204.

Pick 1.29 — Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB (Alabama)

Pick 1.30 — Baltimore Ravens: Chop Robinson, EDGE (Penn State)

Pick 1.31 — San Francisco 49ers: Xavier Legette, WR (South Carolina)

Pick 1.32 — Kansas City Chiefs: Troy Franklin, WR (Oregon)

Round 2 (Buffalo Bills pick)

Pick 44 — Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE (Western Michigan)

The air will likely go out of some Bills Mafia members if the Bills remove themselves from Thursday evening’s card reading ceremonies, but there will be even more annoyance if Buffalo’s first pick isn’t a receiver. Kneeland fits the type of edge rusher the Bills have historically coveted, and he’s shown up in the back end of the first round in more recent mock drafts.

He’s a long-limbed compression rusher with a limited pass-rush repertoire at this point. It’s bull rush or bust for Kneeland right now, but he shows stellar explosion and agility, and he can contribute right now even despite his arsenal being a few missiles short.

Pick 54 — PROJECTED TRADE — Buffalo Bills: Javon Baker, WR (UCF)

The Bills give up picks 2-60, 4-133, and 6-200 to move up six spots in Round 2 in a trade with the Browns. The Bills pick of Baker checks the boxes one would seemingly think they need at the receiver position:

• Able to play on the boundary against press coverage as an X receiver
• Explosive ability down the field
• Explosive ability with the ball in his hands

The third trait is notable because it’s something that Baker shares with 2023 Buffalo Bills first-round pick Dalton Kincaid. The ability to seamlessly transition from receiver to runner may be something that offensive coordinator Joe Brady values highly from pass catchers in his offense. With the bevy of weapons the Bills currently deploy from the slot or at flanker, having a player who can go “get you a bucket” on the outside is highly desired for Buffalo here.

Round 3 (Buffalo Bills pick)

Pick 77 — Gabe Hall, DT (Baylor)

The relationship between Bills head coach Sean McDermott and Baylor head man Dave Aranda strikes again, with the Bills adding again to their defensive line. Starting IDL Da’Quan Jones just signed a two-year deal with the team, but he’s already 32 years old. Hall showed impressive potential that could intrigue defensive line coaches in the NFL, and he was a plus performer at the Senior Bowl. While you wouldn’t currently project Hall as a two-gapping 1-technique player at the next level, Buffalo decides to add youth and explosiveness to the rotation with this pick combined with Kneeland above.

Round 4 (Buffalo Bills pick)

Pick 128 — Sataoa Laumea, OL (Utah)

The Bills are currently -1 in interior offensive line depth relative to where they were at the end of the 2023 season. They traded versatile interior lineman Ryan Bates to the Bears, released stalwart center Mitch Morse, and signed La’El Collins — who Brandon Beane referred to as depth at guard first. Laumea is a depth piece with versatility, having played both right guard and right tackle. His independent hand usage and anchor could appeal to offensive line coach Aaron Kromer.

Round 5 (Buffalo Bills picks)

Pick 144 — Jaylin Simpson, S (Auburn)

There may be teams that think Simpson is actually an outside cornerback prospect due to his athleticism and fluid movement. He played an inside nickel/free safety role for Auburn in 2023. He can step right in on day one for a team and be an excellent special teams player in addition to competing at safety.

Pick 160 — Anthony Gould, WR (Oregon State)

The new kickoff return rules may have teams more focused on a return man this year than they have been over the past few seasons, but Gould provides that plus the ability to contribute at receiver for the team that drafts him. Like Baker in Round 2, Gould is an explosive player both down the field and with the ball in his hands, and his addition plus Baker can allow pass catchers like Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid to operate more easily in the short and intermediate parts of the field due to the spacing they can create while they’re on the field.

Pick 163 — Ray Davis, RB (Kentucky)

A powerful running back with excellent football character, Davis allows you to have a change-of-pace back on the field in place of James Cook without sacrificing ability to catch passes out of the backfield. His pass-protection reps will need work and that could keep him off the field more early on than fans may prefer, but he represents a low-cost contributor to a backfield that can use a differing skill set.

Round 7 (Buffalo Bills pick)

Pick 248 — Willie Roberts, CB (Louisiana Tech)

An experienced and aggressive zone cornerback, Roberts has a Dane Jackson comp in some draft circles due to his click-and-close ability and ball skills. His abysmal vertical jump testing (in the fourth percentile) didn’t likely move teams off his evaluation as a late-round/UDFA target, but the Bills have had success with this archetype of player in the past and go back to the well for Roberts right before the end of the draft.

To recap, this is how things turned out for the Buffalo Bills in this mock exercise:

• 1-28 — PROJECTED TRADE — Las Vegas Raiders: Michael Penix, QB (Washington)
  Buffalo picks up 2-44, 3-77, and a 2025 fourth-round pick in exchange for 1-28 and 6-204.
• 2-44 — Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE (Western Michigan)
• 2-54 — PROJECTED TRADE — Javon Baker, WR (UCF)
  The Bills give up picks 2-60, 4-133, and 6-200 to move up six spots in Round 2.
• 3-77 — Gabe Hall, DT (Baylor)
• 4-128 — Sataoa Laumea, OL (Utah)
• 5-144 — Jaylin Simpson, S (Auburn)
• 5-160 — Anthony Gould, WR (Oregon State)
• 5-163 — Ray Davis, RB (Kentucky)
• 7-248 — Willie Roberts, CB (Louisiana Tech)

…and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive.