Could Bo Nix do for the Rams what Drew Brees did for the Saints?

Bo Nix doesn’t pop off the tape like Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels, maybe that’s what makes him good

For as long as I’ve been doing this job, which is somewhere between 10 and 20 years, I can’t remember a quarterback class quite like the one we have coming in 2024. There are reasons to compare the class to one or another for some reason, but specifically I am talking about the “second-tier” of quarterbacks in the class and the lack of continuity between one analyst’s opinion and another: Where will Bo Nix, Michael Penix, and J.J. McCarthy be drafted?

Yes, it is only February and mock drafts at this time of year always have first round quarterback picks that are soon proven to be absurd. An example would be 2022, when “respected” NFL analysts were constantly talking about Malik Willis as a top-10 pick, if not top-3, and others felt that he’d be joined by Desmond Ridder and Matt Corral.

But the difference between now and then is that I think smart people knew that Willis, Ridder, and Corral were not first round picks.

Not even the smart people seem to agree on the value of Nix, Penix, and McCarthy, let alone the debate of whether or not Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels is the better QB2. By the time we actually get to the draft, maybe even one of the “second tier” quarterbacks go above one of the “first tier” quarterbacks. There are those who feel that McCarthy is the second-best quarterback in the class.

There are those who feel that McCarthy is “clearly” going in the third round.

We are entitled to our opinions and I’m sure you have different ones than mine about the first round (I haven’t come to any real conclusions other than the fact that the NFL seems to be doing a bad job lately of rating and evaluating quarterback prospects, like Brock Purdy being the last pick of 2022 and C.J. Stroud going after Bryce Young) but we should all be able to respect that what we know is: Nobody knows.

Will the first round have four quarterbacks or five? Or six? Or three?

Will teams be wary of Penix’s twice-torn ACL? Will they have a full evaluation of McCarthy coming out of the conservative Michigan offense? Did Nix do enough to overcome the demons left behind as a failed five-star recruit at Auburn after he transferred to Oregon?

We won’t get any good answers until the end of April. Until then, the L.A. Rams have some thinking to do, like “Our most recent first round pick was a quarterback, should we do it again if there’s a potential franchise player who falls to #19?”

With a class like this one, there might be.

Every year at draft season, Turf Show Times is blessed to have the best draft analyst not employed at a major network writing comprehensive and detailed articles in our Fanpost section: I highly recommend you constantly be checking the page for updates by Ferragamo15.

It is only an oversight by me—and be distracted by the number of coaches leaving the Rams—that I have missed recent ones until now. The first to catch my eye was an article about Bo Nix that I think you should read now if you want to know more about Oregon’s quarterback who could go anywhere from around the top-10 to falling out of the top-100 depending on who you ask.

Ferragamo15 compares Nix to Drew Brees. You don’t have to think that Nix will become a Hall of Fame quarterback to draw comparisons, that’s not really what comparisons are supposed to be used for, you only need read for the reasons that he might be an underrated prospect who only falls to the Rams and beyond because there are three—if not four or five—quarterbacks ranked ahead of him.

I am sharing a snippet of Ferragamo’s post for obvious reasons, so go read the entire thing.

I’ve said before on TST that I consider Nix to be another Drew Brees. The purpose of this fanpost is to give a very concrete example of why I said this and why I believe that Nix will be a good NFL starting QB.

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Bo Nix visually looks like a backup QB. He’s short. He doesn’t have a thick, strong build. He doesn’t have a cannon for an arm. Why would this guy be any good?

There are a ton of plays from his tape that I could use to illustrate, but I’m just going to use one and explain why I’d put it on a “scouting highlight tape” for Nix, even though if you saw it you’d think it was a completely “nothing” play that must have slipped into the video by accident.

It is a 1st down snap. The defense pre-snap has both safeties deep, showing either quarters or maybe Cover 6. After the snap, the defense inverts the coverage on one side of the field, with the S dropping down and a different DB rotating back into the safety’s spot. Then, they only rush 3 and drop one of the DL into zone coverage, so they have 8 defenders in zone. It appears to be just a basic Cover 2, but they tried to disguise it and are flooding the underneath zone with an extra defender, compressing the space to try to discourage short throws.

Nix’s footwork in his drop is clean and efficient. He has a very quick release with a compact throwing motion, his shoulders properly aligned to his target. As QB gets the snap, he reads the deep S, confirming the coverage. As soon as QB hits his back foot on the drop, bam, zero hesitation, not wasting any time reading routes that aren’t going to come open, he throws the ball to the RB running an angle route out of the backfield.

The pass comes out so fast that the ball has already left the QB’s hand as the zone defenders are finishing their zone drops. This means the pass happens at the point where there is maximum separation between the RB and the nearest defenders. Accuracy and ball placement are perfect, hitting the RB in stride and helping YAC. The defense tackles the RB after a gain of 5 yards.

Ferragamo ends:

These “nothing” plays aren’t really as easy as they look and when a QB prospect does it so well and consistently that he makes it look easy, that’s exactly why you should be interested in drafting him. It means that QB has put in the work to sharpen his craft and mentally knows what he’s doing.

Five-yard passes don’t make for much of a highlight video, but they can reveal the necessary play traits to be a successful NFL quarterback.

I don’t know if this could also be a reason why Nix is still available when the Rams are picking in the second round. This is the confusing part about the 2024 class and why teams might over-draft quarterbacks because they don’t know if they’ll still be on the board later—because a different team over-drafts him.

What’s clear is that none of these quarterbacks are alike and all will only succeed if the team that picks them knows who they are getting and doesn’t try to change him. You won’t confuse Michael Penix for Bo Nix. You won’t confuse Jayden Daniels for J.J. McCarthy. There’s not much to compare between Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.

These are different styles for different coaches. If Sean McVay spots something special in Nix—or any of these quarterbacks—don’t rule anything out. I’m just not sure when.