Denver should ignore needs on Day 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft

Shoot for a star, not a starter.

The Denver Broncos hold the #12 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. This will give them the ability to draft a premium player. When it comes to figuring out who to draft, there is one thing that Denver should absolutely ignore: their depth chart. Looking at one years needs is a catastrophically foolish way to approach round 1.

The value of a premium player is two-fold. First, your team gets exclusive access to a player. This can be a big deal if the player is a once in a generation talent, like Aaron Donald was for the Rams. It can also be a big deal if talent at the position is very limited in free agency, and it is nearly impossible to find equivalent talent, as is the case at quarterback and generally edge rusher. The second value of drafting the premium player is that you get them on a cost-controlled contract. Neither of these advantages are negated in the slightest by drafting a player at a position where there is no team need.

2021 was the best Broncos draft of the last ten years. When their 9^th overall pick came up, Denver had a few options. They could “solve” their long term need at quarterback, presumably with Justin Fields or Mac Jones. This move would have addressed their depth chart nicely, but in retrospect would have been a bad choice. They could have gone for the question mark on their depth chart at offensive tackle and looked at Alex Leatherwood or Rashawn Slater among others. This move would have also probably “addressed” a weak spot on the offense, while setting them up nicely for the future (though with only something like a 50/50 shot of not being a disaster). There were only one position where the Broncos had insane depth going into the draft. At cornerback Denver had 4 players who had started the previous year in Bryce Callahan, Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby and Michael Ojemudia. Denver chose Patrick Surtain despite the prospect of him competing in camp for the #4 position. That is exactly what transpired and Surtain only got up to 4^th on the depth chart before the season. His talent transcended this supposed challenge, and it has not limited his development or the success of the pick.

While it is just one year, 2021 shows the power of drafting the best available player in Round 1, instead of trying to fill a need. There are plenty of examples of similar situations. The fortunes of the Broncos would have been significantly different over the past fifteen years if in 2011 they had allowed their need for a QB of the future override the best available talent, and they had taken Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert instead of Von Miller. Yes this should also be a caution against automatically trying to take a quarterback in round one.

The real reason many teams draft for need in round 1 is that they know they are incapable of identifying generational talent. Rather than try to explain why they could not recognize the next Jerry Rice, its easier to say to themselves and others that they were happy with their WR rooms. This perspective may make sense at quarterback in certain situations because there is only one starter and very limited practice and game reps, but at literally every other position finding exceptional talent is all upside.

When it comes to their first pick, I want Denver to look to do one of two things. If they believe they have access to a generational talent at a premium position, go get their player. (If they have endless confidence in this, it may even be worth moving up to get their guy). If they are not confident that there is only one right player, then they need to be answering the phones and look to trade down until only one first round player is left on their draft board. But regardless of if they trade up, stay put, or trade down Denver should ignore their perceived needs of the current roster and get the most transformational talent available.