Does Jim Harbaugh’s History Tell Us Anything About the Chargers’ Draft? Maybe Not. But the Draft Itself Might

A recent piece at ESPN suggested that the Chargers may take an offensive lineman because of Jim Harbaugh’s history at Michigan. That doesn’t quite track, but they may still take an offensive lineman anyway.

In January, when we looked at a broad survey of NFL mock drafts, we found that the Los Angeles Chargers were mocked a receiver about 34 percent of the time and an offensive lineman just 15 percent of the time. Brock Bowers, a tight end, was the most popular choice with 41 percent of mock drafts selecting the former Georgia Bulldog.

Since then, the Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh and traded Keenan Allen away to the Bears – signals that have changed how draft analysts have looked at the team. On one hand, the decision to trade Allen depleted an already depleted receiver corps now held up by Joshua Palmer and the hopeful revival of Quentin Johnston.

There are four wideouts on the roster, and they have a combined 2,233 yards … for their careers. By contrast, the weakened Denver Broncos receiving group has two wideouts who have more than that each. Their combined 12,669 career yards so outpaces the Chargers corps that to compare the two would be folly. Yet, both are considered by the draft world to have receiver as a draft need.

That’s how dire the Chargers’ receiver situation is.

On the other hand, Jim Harbaugh seemingly places a premium on the offensive line. ESPN’s Jordan Reid spoke to an AFC director of college scouting who argued that Harbaugh didn’t recruit wideouts all that heavily while at Michigan.

“The offensive line has always been the hub of the offense for Harbaugh,” they told ESPN. “He didn’t even have highly recruited wideouts at Michigan, and now that thought process is supposed to change?”

Upon further investigation, that doesn’t really hold up. Between 2015 and 2023, Harbaugh’s Wolverines successfully recruited 14 four-star or better receivers and 18 four-star or better offensive linemen (according to 247 composite rankings). That does not indicate a strong preference for either, and there are usually more four- and five-star offensive linemen in general than receivers. It certainly refutes the strength of that executive’s take.

Between the two positions, there was only one five-star recruit: receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones. The only other five-stars recruited by Michigan in that time included two defensive tackles, one linebacker, one safety and one running back.

While at San Francisco, Harbaugh’s 49ers only drafted one of those two positions in the first round – receiver A.J. Jenkins. That’s not quite fair, though – the 49ers had just drafted two offensive linemen in the first round the year prior to Harbaugh’s arrival and were experiencing peak Joe Staley.

And the Ravens, where general manager Joe Hortiz comes from? They’ve also been happy to draft both positions in the first round – receivers Breshad Perriman, Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers join offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum.

Of course, Harbaugh said this at the owner’s meeting:

That’s a strong statement, but it’s not clear based on the history of either decision-maker that we’ll see a clear pattern emerge. The depth of the draft may offer a better clue.

At first glance, it may seem obvious that one can wait on an offensive lineman; this is the richest OL draft in recent memory – perhaps in history. Mock drafts have between 10 and 12 offensive linemen going in the first round and just between three and five receivers. The most consistently highly-ranked player among non-quarterbacks is Marvin Harrison, a receiver – suggesting that it’s not only thin, but top-heavy.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story, either. Using GrindingTheMocks database, we can see how many players are expected to go at the top of each round. Around the fifth overall pick, two receivers and one offensive linemen see themselves go off the board – receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., receiver Malik Nabers and offensive lineman Joe Alt. A little later on, we see tackle Olu Fashanu get selected. Sometimes, Fashanu is projected as a top-five pick, though that’s rare. The same is true of receiver Rome Odunze.

But the receiver market seems to be more evenly distributed. In the GTM survey, three receiver and two offensive tackles show up between picks 31 and 38 – receivers Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy and Ladd McConkey along with offensive linemen Jordan Morgan and Kingsley Sumataia . As the draft continues, only one offensive lineman shows up in the top 55: tackle Patrick Paul.

Along the way, we see receivers Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette and Troy Franklin. When we look at industry big boards, we can see the same pattern continue into the third round. From ranks 60 to 80, four receivers appear: Malachi Corley, Ja’Lynn Polk, Devontez Walker and Jalen McMillan. No offensive linemen appear, though Christian Haynes appears just prior to the 60s and Dominick Puni is ranked just beyond 80.

It’s not until we get to the fourth-round range where we see offensive linemen return to prominence – Zak Zinter, Christian Mahogany, Javon Foster, Christian Jones and Beaux Limmer all appear to go in that range. Even then, there are still receivers. Javon Baker, Brenden Rice, Johnny Wilson and Malik Washington all make appearances in the same range.

With that in mind, it may be better for the Chargers to select an offensive lineman, regardless of the state of the receiver room.