Dak Prescott or Trey Lance? Part I: Worst-case scenario for the Cowboys

If the Cowboys front office is playing with fire when it comes to Dak Prescott and his contract situation, here’s how the whole thing could burn to the ground.

The Dak Prescott contract saga with the Dallas Cowboys has dominated the headlines this offseason. And every time Jerry Jones, Stephen Jones, or Prescott himself speaks, more fuel is added to the fire as fans are left wondering if the quarterback we’ve cheered on the last eight years will be wearing the star after the upcoming season.

Adding more spice to this ordeal is the trade for former third-overall pick Trey Lance last fall. What was that about? The front office has been opaque about their plans for Lance, and the uncertainty only heightens when they speak vaguely about Prescott’s future. What in tarnation are they up to?

We don’t know. We think we might know. Some of us (raises hand) feel strongly that this three-time Pro Bowl quarterback who finished second in NFL MVP voting last year isn’t going anywhere. However, in the spirit of being open-minded, all doors are open. The Joneses are coming off their most frugal free agency spending offseason we’ve ever seen, so believing they might try to skate away from an expensive franchise quarterback to a much more affordable quarterback who is just 23 years old isn’t out of the realm of possibility. For that reason, we’ll examine both sides of the equation. Let’s get the bad part out of the way as today we look at the worst-case scenarios of how this could play out.

WORST CASE SCENARIO – Move on from Dak, Trey isn’t the answer

Brace yourself, this one is going to sting a little.

In a world where the front office decides not to be one of those teams that allocate nearly a quarter of their cap resources to the quarterback position, the Joneses move on from Prescott and put all their faith in the young unproven Lance. The determining factor in this rests on what Lance shows them between now and the end of the season. It would start with flashes in training camp, preseason, and whatever regular-season snaps he sees. Somehow the brain trust at The Star sees enough and decides Lance is their future.

In this scenario, Prescott is not extended. The front office would attempt to sway Dak to waive his no-trade clause so they could work a deal before the midseason trade deadline to get something in return, but that blows up in their face. We could see a QB controversy in Dallas and the pressure to see more of Lance increases as the season goes on. The marriage between Prescott and the Cowboys ends in a divorce. All the Cowboys get out of the settlement is a 2026 third-round compensatory pick from a lucrative contract Prescott receives on the open market next offseason.

Things go from bad to worse when next season, the Cowboys find out what the 49ers already knew, and that’s Lance isn’t made for the big stage at the pro level. The Cowboys suffer immensely like other NFL teams who don’t have a capable quarterback. This results in years and years of trial and error, spending high draft resources and big money in free agency trying to find an answer at quarterback. And just like they learned before, it isn’t easy the consequences are severe. Adding insult to injury, while the Cowboys struggle to find their bearings, fans sit helplessly as Prescott leads his new team to a Super Bowl victory.

Is that painful enough for you?

SECOND WORST CASE – Re-sign Dak, and let Trey walk after the 2024 season

Sticking with the theme of the front office holding their breath that Lance is the future, the Cowboys decide to let the 2024 season play out. Underwhelming training camp and preseason samplings raise questions about this young, inexperienced quarterback. The uncertainty rolls into the regular season and in what little action he does see, it becomes evident that he’s not a guy they can trust with the keys to this franchise.

The trade for Lance was a dart throw that didn’t stick. Will he eventually develop into an NFL-capable quarterback? Who knows, but it won’t be discovered on the Cowboys’ dime because his contract expires the upcoming season and he’s free to look for work elsewhere next offseason. Oh well, you can’t blame the Cowboys for kicking the tires and giving him a look.

The good news for Dallas is that they still have one last card up their sleeve to hang on to Prescott. The bad news is, it’s the joker card, as in the Joneses are a couple of court jesters who put on their fancy pants and now look ridiculous. Prescott’s representation wisely advises him to hit the open market as desperate teams offer up big chunks of cash for Dak’s services. The Joneses, not wanting to make the biggest mistake in their team’s history (and they’ve made some big ones), will match any offer. Not wanting to play for a black hole of a team like, the Carolina Panthers, Prescott agrees to terms with Dallas and becomes the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history. When the dust settles, the Joneses still get their guy, but they pay dearly as they’re hit with excessive late fees.

The range of outcomes for this Dak/Trey quarterback soap opera is wide and we covered two possibilities. Tomorrow, we’ll take a more optimistic approach and explore if any happier endings are in the Cowboys’ future.