Mailbag: Is Michael Penix Jr. going to be Raiders’ next quarterback?

Returning Raider Naton’s questions about the NFL Draft and free agency

The Las Vegas Raiders are a couple of weeks into free agency and the NFL Draft is about a month away. With just Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell in the meeting room, a lot of Raiders fans have questions about what’s going to happen at quarterback and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. came up several times this week.

So, let’s get to it and dive into this week’s mailbag.

Question: Hearing a ton of buzz on Penix. What say you?

Answer: It’s legitimate because I think the Raiders are going to have a hard time moving up in the draft to take any of the top-four quarterbacks. Penix is probably the next best option and could be available at 13 or at least wouldn’t require a big trade-up. If Las Vegas wants to be safe, striking a deal with the Jets for the 10th pick would be the route to go so that they can leapfrog the Broncos.

Ultimately, I think Penix is probably their best realistic option at this point, and he has the potential to start right away given that he’s older/more experienced as a sixth-year senior. Right now, he’s my bet to be the team’s next quarterback.

Q: When the Raiders take Michael Penix Jr. at 13, how long does he sit behind Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew?

A: I kind of answered this above, I could see Penix starting Week 1. To me — and a big part of this is because of his age and experience — he falls into the high-floor, low-ceiling category. It’s hard to imagine he’ll get dramatically better than what he is or has shown given that he’s already played so much, but that also should help him make a smoother transition to the NFL than someone like say, J.J. McCarthy.

You know what you’re getting with Penix which is a big-armed quarterback who has accuracy issues, and I think he’s a better fit with Luke Getsy than O’Connell or Minshew. Getsy has a lot of deep passing concepts and likes to dial up shots down the field. The two quarterbacks currently on the roster have arm strength issues while the Washington product doesn’t.

Q: Is the fact that Michael Penix Jr is left-handed an important factor in deciding to draft him? His blindside blocker would be the RT which could be a concern. Instead of Miller protecting him, it would be a potential rookie on his blindside.

Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

A: A factor, yes. A reason not to take him, no.

The blindside issue can be schemed around by incorporating half-side reads to the right and by giving the tackle help in pass protection. Also, no matter what hand the quarterback is throwing with, the Raiders are going to have to address right tackle anyway or the QB will be in danger.

So, if they’re going to have to add someone to hold down the right edge regardless, might as well take the more talented player at the most important position on the field.

Q: How high do the Raiders have to move up to get QB4 in the draft?

A: I had a few questions similar to this one, so apologies if you had a similar question and I didn’t directly answer yours.

I honestly think they’re going to have to move up to No. 4 to get a top-four quarterback.

The Vikings equipping themselves with the 23rd pick is likely to have more capital to trade up from 11 for a quarterback. If we’re safely assuming the Bears, Commanders and Patriots take a quarterback, Minnesota is going to target that fourth or fifth spot and has more ammunition than Las Vegas.

Also, the Chargers aren’t going to help a division rival get their quarterback of the future, and the Giants, who have the sixth pick, are rumored to be in the QB market as well. So, even if the Vikings and Pats surprise people and strike a deal for No. 3, New York is still a threat at six and we can pretty much throw the idea of the Raiders trading up to five out the window.

Given all of this, Las Vegas has to trade with Arizona if it wants QB4.

Q: Do you think we’ll be stuck at 13 and take a QB (Penix/Nix) or take an O-lineman or CB and gamble getting a QB in the 2nd supposing we can trade up in the 2nd to get one? Basically, will our hand be forced due to how it plays out?

A: To be honest, I don’t have a good answer or read on this situation. I do think everyone in the building wants to win now and having good quarterback play is essential to that. But — and I’m not saying I think this — it wouldn’t surprise me if the team’s brass legitimately thinks they can win with Gardner Minshew under center. To me, that signing was an insurance policy in case they can’t draft a quarterback and allows the front office to address a different position if they get stuck at 13.

Q: Is it possible Drake Maye drops to the 4 to 5 spot and Telesco pulls the trigger?

A: I think it’s highly unlikely and the reason Maye is losing steam in the media recently can be chalked up to prospect fatigue. On the other end of that, the one way it could happen is if Washington takes Jayden Daniels and New England or Minnesota, two teams in rebuilding mode, think McCarthy has more potential than Maye. I don’t think anyone would reasonably argue who the better player right now is between those two, but I could see a team that is more focused on the long-term plan favoring McCarthy’s traits.

Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

If that happens, Tom Telesco isn’t known for trading up but Maye has drawn comparisons to Justin Herbert. So, I think it’d be reasonable for Telesco to essentially say to himself, “This is my last shot at being an NFL general manager and we need a quarterback, so I’ll make a splash and get the guy who reminds me of arguably my best pick as a GM.”

Q: I’ve never understood the drive to “give up the store” to draft a QB. It’s the definition of insanity. How many QBs drafted in the top 10 have won a Super Bowl? Doesn’t it make far more sense to draft a QB later, who may have decent skills but has demonstrated good decision-making as a field general and develop those skills over a few seasons? History seems to prove out that philosophy. Frankly, if I can wager that none of these top 2024 QB prospects ever win a Super Bowl, I will place a huge bet and a bigger bet that it the next 10 Super Bowls will be won by the team with top 10 offensive and defensive lines.

A: Patrick Mahomes was the 10th overall pick in 2017 and the Chiefs traded up for him. While Matthew Stafford didn’t win a Super Bowl until he was traded to another team, he was a No. 1 overall pick and faced a fellow No. 1 overall pick in Joe Burrow. While the Eagles won it all with backup Nick Foles in 2017, Carson Wentz was their starter for the majority of the year and was an MVP candidate. Philadelphia had to trade up and get Wentz with the second pick.

For what it’s worth, this year’s Super Bowl matchup featured two teams that had questions at offensive line with the Chiefs’ tackle situation and the 49ers’ unit outside of Trent Williams. San Francisco had a great pass rush but ended up losing to the better quarterback.

You can sit back and hope to find the next Tom Brady, Brock Purdy or mid- to late-round gem, but that’s a bigger hope and prayer than trading up.

As a side note, I always find it interesting when people only look at championships when talking about acquiring a quarterback because two guys have accounted for seven out of the last ten Super Bowl wins, Brady and Mahomes.

So, if that’s what we’re going off of, arguments could be made to trade into the top 10, hope the team gets lucky with a sixth-round pick, or sign a quarterback in free agency. That’s what the Chiefs, Patriots and Buccaneers did.

A: Whether the Raiders brought Amik Robertson back or not, they were still going to need a CB1 option. Since they have Nate Hobbs and Jack Jones to fill two starting spots, Robertson became expendable. So, the team didn’t want to pay Robertson $9.25 million over two years to be a backup or fringe starter, especially when they have Brandon Facyson to fill the third starting spot and Jakorian Bennett to come off the bench. And Facyson starting while Bennett is the fourth corner would be a worst-case scenario where they don’t get that CB1.

Similar to you, I was surprised they let Jermaine Eluemunor walk, but he is 30 and the team’s brass has some faith in Thayer Munford Jr. taking over that role. Plus, this draft class has a lot of good tackles, and I get the feeling that Eluemunor wanted to continue playing for Carmen Bricillo since Bricillo helped revive his career.

A: In a fantasy world, McCarthy, but I don’t think that’s realistic given everything I said above.

I battle with the realistic scenario because I can see a world where Penix drops to 13, but I think he’s more of a second-round talent if we remove position value from the equation. However, we can’t do that and the risk of hoping he’s still around on Day 2 scares the crap out of me because I wouldn’t be thrilled about heading into next season with just Minshew and O’Connell as the quarterback options.

So, I guess with that logic, my answer is Penix.

However, my dream/realistic hybrid scenario, if you will, is taking Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold at 13 overall and then trading back into the first or up in the second round to get Penix.

Hopefully, that wasn’t thoroughly confusing but, as you might be able to tell, I’m getting loopy here so I think it’s time to wrap up this week’s mailbag!

That’ll do it for this week’s mailbag. Thank you all for submitting questions and, as your weekly reminder, if you’d like to have your questions answered in a future column, tweet them at me, @MHolder95, email them to SBPQuestions1@gmail.com or look for our weekly call for questions on the site. The latter will continue to publish on Thursdays.