Patriots Likely to Stick and Pick a QB at #3

Potential trade partner for Vikings increasingly unlikely to trade down

Word on this Monday of NFL Draft week is that the Patriots are increasingly likely to stick and pick at their #3 slot, which has implications for the Vikings draft strategy on Thursday night.

Three of the top NFL insiders- Adam Schefter with ESPN, Albert Breer with SI, and Peter Schrager with FoxSports- are all reporting that the Patriots are unlikely to trade down and will pick a quarterback at #3.

Drake Maye appears to be the favorite, assuming the Commanders take Jayden Daniels at #2.

All of the above are saying that the Patriots are still answering the phone, and the Vikings and Giants are the primary teams calling, but so far no deal has been reached for the Patriots to trade that pick. Previous reports suggested that the Patriots were looking for a “unprecedented offer” to trade down from #3, which at this point seems increasingly unlikely to be provided. Tom Curran, who covers the Patriots, recently reported that it would take an offer of more than three first-round picks for the Patriots to trade down.

Albert Breer added that he thinks the Vikings can make it work with JJ McCarthy or Michael Penix Jr., so they’re unlikely to break the bank in a trade up with the Patriots.

Patriots owner Robert Kraft said at the league meeting a few weeks ago that one way or another, he wants to get a young, top quarterback in the draft, and that undoubtedly carries weight with Patriots’ decision-makers, including de facto GM Eliot Wolf.

Vikings Remain Active

It’s universally mentioned that the Vikings have been active with potential partners to trade up in the draft. My guess is that the Vikings have been in contact with every team picking ahead of them in the draft, and probably those picking in-between #11 and #23 as well, to sound out their interest in a potential trade, outline terms, and generally get the lay of the land in terms of what other teams are active in the trade market and what other teams may do. Whether or not any of this materializes into a trade on Thursday night remains to be seen.

Cardinals will Not Trade Their #4 Pick Until They’re On the Clock

In other draft news that may affect the Vikings, it was also mentioned above that the Arizona Cardinals are not going to make any pre-draft deals with their #4 pick, and any potential trade will occur while they’re on the clock. The idea is for the Cardinals to maximize their leverage and compensation while on the clock by squeezing potential bidders in competition with each other. Those bidders could include the Vikings, Broncos, Giants, and Raiders.

If quarterbacks are taken 1-2-3 as seems increasingly likely from these reports, that would leave only one of the quarterbacks expected to go in the top ten left at #4- most likely JJ McCarthy.

The odds market currently has Marvin Harrison Jr. as the heavy favorite to be drafted at #4, with a 70% implied probability, suggesting that the Cardinals sticking and picking at #4 is the most likely outcome.

Will McCarthy Fall?

Similarly, Malik Nabors, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Joe Alt have better odds to be taken at #5 than JJ McCarthy, also suggesting the Chargers are more likely to stick and pick one of those three names at #5, rather than trade down with a team that takes JJ McCarthy.

At later picks beginning with the Giants at #6, McCarthy is no better than a 5/1 shot to go at #6, and less likely at later picks through #10, suggesting there is a chance he could fall and be available for the Vikings at #11, depending on how aggressive teams like the Broncos and Raiders are in pursuing him.

The Broncos don’t have a lot of draft capital, which may impact how aggressive they’re willing to be, despite some reports that they may be aggressive in pursuing a quarterback in this draft. They also just acquired Zach Wilson via trade, so maybe they’ll focus on in-house options at quarterback this year, rather than aggressively pursue one in the draft.

The Raiders have been linked to Michael Penix Jr., but have also met with Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, and Joe Milton since the Combine. They have not met with JJ McCarthy since the Combine- at least no publicly known meeting has occurred.

How aggressive the Vikings think other teams will be in trading up for a quarterback may impact their willingness to do so- and at what price. If nobody else is making a serious bid to move up ahead of the Vikings in the draft for McCarthy, why would the Vikings do so?

It’s draft week so things can change and often do, so stay tuned.

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