Why A.J. Dillon would be a good fit for the Cowboys in free agency

A.J. Dillon is apparently an option for the Cowboys at running back

Free agency has officially kicked off, which means the Cowboys are doing their usual rounds of bargain-bin shopping. One name that they’ve been connected to, that seems to be picking up steam, is former Packers running back AJ Dillon.

A second-round pick out of Boston College back in 2020, Dillon is practically the textbook definition of a power back. Standing at six feet and roughly 245 pounds, Dillon is a downhill runner in the mold of a Derrick Henry type, though without the multiple 1,000 yard rushing seasons. Some of that has to do with Dillon’s natural limitations – Henry was a unicorn in his prime – as well as the fact that Dillon was never the workhorse back in Green Bay.

Still, Dillon would be a perfect fit in Dallas. One development that has largely gone under the radar since Mike McCarthy took over the Cowboys was the gradual balancing act between Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, creating a more even tandem in the backfield between the downhill Elliott and explosive Pollard.

There were times in 2023, though, where the Cowboys lacked a true physical running presence. Rico Dowdle and Hunter Luepke both had some moments, and Pollard flashed some power late in the season as his body began to round back into form following his injury at the tail end of 2022, but Dallas was often left scratching their heads on who to turn to in short yardage situations.

Consider that in 2023, when the Cowboys ran the ball with three or fewer yards to go for a first down, they successfully converted on 67.8% of those plays as a team. For his career, Dillon has recorded a 68.5% conversion rate in those short yardage situations.

That figure also comes after a down year in general for Dillon, which is why the Packers are content to let him walk in free agency and why the Cowboys believe he might be within their price range. Dillon’s efficiency fell off this last year across the board, but his first three seasons in the NFL – when he was primarily utilized as a short-yardage and red zone back – saw Dillon gaining a first down on 75.3% of his short-yardage runs.

Not only was Dillon a dominant short-yardage back early on in Green Bay, but he was growing into a dangerous red zone rushing threat too. Dillon’s second season saw him post more carries in the red zone than veteran Aaron Jones, 39 to 32, and Dillon’s five rushing touchdowns that year led the team. A year later, Dillon saw two fewer carries in the red zone than Jones, but he still scored five times to Jones’ mere two red zone touchdowns.

So what happened in 2023 for Dillon’s productivity to go down? Part of it has to do with injuries, as Dillon suffered a broken thumb late in the year that caused him to miss two games. He also played through the injury for an additional two games, but Dillon’s workload was cut in half in those games.

Another factor was that the Packers began to expand Dillon’s role in 2023. During his first three years in Green Bay, Dillon had worked primarily in short yardage and red zone situations, and often played behind gap blocking schemes. But in 2023, Dillon saw more exposure to zone blocking schemes – the default of this Packers offense – as well as more carries outside of his usual role. There was a belief that the Packers were trying to mold Dillon into more of an every-down back, as opposed to the situational player he had been, and the experiment clearly did not work.

That’s where we find Dillon today, as a player at one of the least valuable positions in football who seems incapable of playing on every down. It’s no wonder that his market hasn’t exploded thus far, but his particular skill set is exactly what the Cowboys are in need of.

Dillon has proven that he can thrive as the short-yardage back in a tandem, which appears to be what the Cowboys are aiming for in 2024. Beyond that, though, Dillon has been stout in pass protection. He’s ranked inside the top 10 of running backs in PFF’s pass blocking grade in each of his first three seasons. That certainly means more to the Cowboys, who rely on the position for help in pass protection in their new offensive scheme.

At the end of the day, is Dillon going to completely reinvent this offense and catapult them to a Super Bowl? Likely not. But Dillon offers a known commodity in a role the Cowboys lacked last season. And for the price tag he would likely carry, Dillon would instantly add a core element to this running back room and potentially create a formidable tandem alongside a more explosive rookie the Cowboys are rumored to be targeting.