Opposing QB Stat Tracker: Week 12

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

NOTE: All references to rankings are of the top 32 QBs by attempts through current week.

HOW WELL?

Tyrod Taylor has played only 4-1/2 games this year and so far, he is basically average at overall efficiency (epa/d), but below average in passing success rate.

He did well in his first 1-1/2 games, but since then, his numbers have dropped dramatically.

HOW FAR?

His passing depth has been all over the place, but on the season, it is a bit below average (7.7 air yards). Similarly, his average completion depth is short (5.5 air yards, 22nd).

His yards per attempt ranks 25th on the season and the air yards portion of that is also 25th.

TO WHO?

Brandin Cooks is by far his favorite receiver, and was sick earlier in the week but looks like he will play.

Chris Conley has added a lot of value on short passes, but he has been sick as well.

Tyrod’s average TD distance is . . . well, average.

HOW ACCURATE?

Taylor’s overall accuracy (cpoe) ranks 25th. His production between 16 and 30 yards is almost non-existent. However, his passes over 30 yards have a higher completion rate than average.

HOW FAST?

His season TTT ranks about average, which is completely in line with his depth of target.

TO WHERE?

His only season success is on passes between 0 – 10 yards.

DASHBOARD

When Tyrod was under center, he faced the easiest passing defenses in the league (32nd opd). In those games, Houston employed a run-first concept (27th ed%), which is unfortunate as their run game is horrible (30th aRSR).

Taylor has an average release time (15th TTT) to go along with an average passing depth (18th aDOT). Even with a reasonable release time, he faces enormous pressure (2nd pr%), suggesting poor protection. ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate ranks the Texans O-line 30th, so that all lines up.

His accuracy is poor (25th cpoe), resulting in primarily short completions (22nd ay/c) and although his receiving corps is thin, they are providing an average of +0.1 yards in yac above expectation (15th yacoe). However, it is not enough to lift overall yardage efficiency above a 25th rank (6.8 ypa).

With such poor protection, it’s not surprising that he has an above average sack rate (11th sk%), but he primarily deals with pressure by scrambling (4th scr%) and rarely throws the ball away (22nd ta%). He abandons passes at the 7th highest rate in the league (17.2% aa%), which pulls an already poor yardage efficiency down to 5.9 net yards per drop-back (24th ny/d).

Taylor has an average turnover rate and a slightly above average TD rate, but he does not get many first downs (29th 1st%). His efficiency outside the red-zone is surprisingly good (6th orze) but he is league worst inside the 20 (32nd rze). That averages out to the 19th ranked overall epa per drop-back.

GLOSSARY

drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)

opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured

ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.

wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)

ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.

pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)

adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.

20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards

ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)

yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.

yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)

ypa: Yards per Attempt

aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.

ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs

scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs

sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs

to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs

ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards – Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)

1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs

td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs

rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone

orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone

20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards

psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0

epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.