Saquon Barkley, Giants face a different landscape this time as negotiations prepare to heat up

What sort of market will Barkley find this time as a he seeks a long-term deal from the Giants … or someone else?

Tuesday is the first day NFL teams can place a franchise or transition tag on prospective free agents, keeping them off the open market. Let’s not expect the New York Giants to rush to tag running back Saquon Barkley, at a cost of $12.1 million, for a second straight year.

Teams have from Feb. 20 to March 5 to tag players. Giants’ GM Joe Schoen has said that he will negotiate with Barkley’s new agent, Ed Berry of Creative Artists Agency (CAA) during the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis next week. The Combine wraps up on March 4.

So, how is this going to play out?

To try and figure that out, or at least take an educated guess, we have to begin by reviewing how we got here.

The Giants and Barkley were in this spot a year ago. The Giants used the $10.1 million tag on Barkley and the two sides negotiated right up until the final hours of the July 17 deadline to reach a multi-year contract before falling short.

Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post reported at the time that the Giants’ final offer was a three-year deal worth $11 million annually with guaranteed money between $22 and $23 million. Dunleavy’s reporting was that the two sides, with Berry having been added to Barkley’s negotiating team late to work with Kim Miale of Roc Nation, finished $2 million or less apart in both average annual value and guaranteed money.

Barkley ended up playing on an amended franchise tag with roughly $900,000 in incentives that he did not reach during the season.

We are back here again. This time with Berry as the sole representative for Barkley as Miale and Roc Nation are no longer part of his team.

The landscape, though, appears different.

The Holy Grail of contracts for Barkley would likely be the three-year, $42 million deal ($19.347 million guaranteed) that Jonathan Taylor received from the Indianapolis Colts last season.

It seems unlikely the Giants, or perhaps anyone, would give Barkley that deal now. Age and workload matter at the running back position. Taylor got that contract from Indianapolis during his age 24 season. Barkley is looking for a deal entering his age 27 season. Barkley has roughly 500 more touches during his career than does Taylor, and he is coming off a season where his production did not match previous seasons and he dealt with yet another leg injury.

That, though, doesn’t mean the Taylor number would be impossible for Barkley to reach. If Barkley reaches free agency, it only takes one team to think he is worth that. Among those I and others have talked to, former Minnesota Vikings GM Jeff Diamond appears to be out on that island alone thinking Barkley could get Taylor money.

“He’s still one of the best backs in the league and one of their best players and dual purpose and he would still be $2 million per year less than [Christian] McCaffrey,” Diamond told Big Blue View.

The real number to watch, though, is likely to be the $12.1 million franchise tag value. Can Barkley find a deal with an average annual value reaching that number?

A year ago, former sports agent and current CBS Sports salary cap analyst Joel Corry told me that a Barkley deal would have to include at least $22 million in guaranteed money, the combined value of potential 2023 and 2024 franchise tags.

As we mentioned above, Dunleavy reported that the Giants’ final offer hovered in that vicinity.

This time around, Corry thinks Barkley is in a weaker position.

“He couldn’t get it [the tag value] after a better 2022,” Corry told Big Blue View. “I doubt he gets it now.”

Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap sees that tag value as a best-case scenario for Barkley.

“As a free agent I think he would be under,” Fitzgerald told Big Blue View. “If he agreed to a long-term deal with the Giants he would be around that.”

Former New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins GM Randy Mueller told The Athletic that $12.1 million is “not crazy” for Barkley.

“(The $12.1 million) is not a crazy number if you did tag him, nor is it crazy if you sign him, I don’t think,” Mueller said. “He takes your offense above and beyond what is designed and planned. So coaches get more out of it than what they draw up. Again, my opinion. But that’s what makes him special.”

Over The Cap’s valuation for Barkley is $7.9 million. Spotrac’s market value for Barkley is three years, $29.928 million, or $9.976 million annually. Pro Football Focus projects a more Barkley-friendly deal of three years, $36.75 million ($12.25 million annually) with $20.1 million guaranteed.

I tend to side with Corry in terms of expectations for how this might go. Schoen and coach Brian Daboll did not draft Barkley. They have no emotional investment in him. I could see the Giants’ best offer to Barkley next week coming in somewhere around two years and $20-22 million, with about $15 million guaranteed. Perhaps that would include a void year to lower the immediate cap hit.

What if Barkley isn’t willing to sign on the dotted line for that?

I can’t see Schoen being willing to tag Barkley again, committing $12.1 million in cap space to the running back. Schoen clearly believes in positional value and would rather not have a running back entering Year 7 of his career chewing up a big slice of cap space.

Would Schoen let Barkley test free agency if no deal is reached next week? Barkley has often said he simply wants something “fair.” At the Super Bowl, Barkley told Dunleavy he would be amenable to testing free agency to gauge his value while agreeing to bring the best offer he receives back to the Giants.

“I wouldn’t be against that,” Barkley told The Post when pitched the hypothetical scenario during an exclusive interview at Super Bowl LVIII. “That’s fair.”

In that scenario, Dan Duggan of The Athletic predicts that Barkley “would likely be in for a rude awakening as he hits a crowded running back market at a time when the position is being undervalued.”

I would agree. History is against Barkley getting better, or healthier, as he ages. If there is a team out there willing to go above and beyond what the Giants are willing to offer Barkley, I again agree with Duggan when he writes “If Barkley gets a strong offer on the market, the Giants should shake his hand and thank him for six years of exemplary service.”

Business is about to pick up on the Barkley front. Let’s see where it goes this time.