SR’s Fab 5: The Bucs’ Shining Licht

Welcome to SR’s Fab 5 – my weekly insider column on the Bucs that features five things that are on my mind. SR’s Fab 5 is now a quicker read, but still packs a punch. Enjoy!

FAB 1. The Bucs’ Shining Licht – GM Jason Licht

The Bucs have made the playoffs for four straight seasons. That’s only been done one other time in franchise history – from 1999-2002 when the team posted a 42-22 record.

Tampa Bay’s record from 2020-2023 is 41-26. But unlike the previous span, which included more wins yet only one division title and a Super Bowl, this span features a Super Bowl championship and three division titles.

Players have come and gone during the 2020-23 span, including legends like Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. The Bucs have also had two coaches during that span – Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles.

But the Bucs have only had one general manager, and that’s Jason Licht – the man who brought Arians and Bowles to Tampa Bay in 2019.

Licht and his front office have been the one constant in Tampa Bay during this incredibly accomplished time. The Bucs have made a successful transition from an older, veteran-laden Super Bowl team to a much younger, rookie-filled NFC South champion within the span of four years.

While some suggested that the Bucs blow up the franchise following Brady’s retirement back in January, Licht and Bowles decided to tweak the roster and reload rather than rebuild. It paid off with the team’s third winning season in four years and a fourth straight playoff berth.

It’s reasonable to expect the Bucs to be favored for a fourth straight division title next year, too. Carolina and Atlanta will have new head coaches and new schemes and are probably a year or two away from competing. New Orleans’ Dennis Allen is 1-3 against Tampa Bay over the past two seasons, and has a 16-18 record as the Saints head coach. Due to the Saints’ 9-8 finish in 2023, they will be the most logical challenger for the NFC South throne next year.

Building a Super Bowl team is quite an accomplishment, but the level of sustained success that Licht has overseen is even more impressive. While the Bucs over-drafted their salary cap credit card during the team’s 2020-22 Super Bowl runs, Tampa Bay chose to pay that off that debt by absorbing nearly $80 million in dead cap money this year thanks to great strategy by capologist Mike Greenberg.

And the Bucs still finished 9-8 and won the division.

Bucs brass: Jason Licht, John Spytek and Mike Greenberg – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Licht also gets credit for having two general manager candidates on hand in assistant GMs Mike Greenberg and John Spytek. Greenberg is not the personnel maven that Spytek is, but nobody works an NFL salary cap the way he does.

Greenberg is a bona fide cap wizard who has revolutionized NFL contracts since 2010, and he’s the team top strategist in several ways serving as Licht’s right-hand man during his tenure. One of Licht’s best moves as general manager came in 2014 upon his hiring when he retained Greenberg, who was originally hired by former general manager Mark Dominik.

Greenberg has an interview with Carolina and there is a chance he could depart. But Licht has lined up a possible eventual replacement in Jacqueline Davidson, the team’s vice president of football research, who was hired to work alongside Greenberg and handle the cap and contracts.

Jon Robinson, the Titans’ former general manager, is a former Licht protégé. It will only be a matter of time before Spytek, the man who replaced Robinson – in an incredible move by Licht back in 2018 – becomes a general manager. Spytek is a very charismatic, knowledgeable personnel guy who has Super Bowl rings from his time in Denver and Tampa Bay.

Licht has also brought up two very capable personnel men waiting in the wings in Mike Biehl and Rob McCartney – both of them share the title of director of personnel. Behind them are assistant director of college scouting Byron Kiefer, who assists Biehl, and director of pro personnel Shane Scannell, who assists McCartney – not to mention a very capable roster of scouts.

For as much credit as Licht gets for draft picks, free agent signings and trades, he has absolutely stockpiled the Bucs’ front office with talent, too. Speaking of personnel, let’s take a look at the new wave of Buccaneers on the roster.

Bucs OLB YaYa Diaby and DT Calijah Kancey – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are coming off two incredibly successful drafts that have produced 10 starters, including the likes of No. 3 receiver Trey Palmer (sixth round in 2023) and cornerback Zyon McCollum (fifth round in 2022), who actually has more defensive snaps than either oft-injured Carlton Davis III or Jamel Dean this season.

Finding 10 starters in two draft classes is crazy good. Any G.M. would take that number over four years – let alone two.

Aside from those two, Licht and Co. have set this team up for future success with the likes of defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (first round in 2023) and outside linebacker YaYa Diaby (third round in 2023) and potentially defensive tackle Logan Hall (second round in 2022) on defense. On offense, Licht’s impeccable record of drafting offensive linemen has continued with right tackle Luke Goedeke (second round in 2022) and right guard Cody Mauch (second round in 2023), who might be moved to center next year.

Licht also finally hit on a running back in Rachaad White (third round in 2022) and has a capable tight end in Cade Otton (fourth round in 2022), although Tampa Bay could use an upgrade, as Otton would be best suited as a TE2.

We’ll see how many of these new Bucs become Pro Bowlers in time. Licht has drafted nine Pro Bowlers since taking over the franchise in 2014 – the most by any general manager in Tampa Bay history.

FAB 2. Todd Bowles Deserves Credit For Winning Back-To-Back Division Titles

Todd Bowles hasn’t had it easy in his first two years as Tampa Bay’s head coach, but his steady hand is a big reason why the Bucs have won back-to-back division championships. Bowles was named Bruce Arians’ replacement on March 30, 2022 after the first two waves of free agency was over. And one of Arians’ directives to Bowles was that he keep the coaching staff intact during the 2022 season.

Bucs QB Tom Brady and HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bowles had some fundamental differences of opinion with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and some of the offensive staff members, but his hands were basically tied that first year. Bowles wanted to run the ball more and have a balanced offense, which would be a more complementary style of football to aid his defense.

When Tampa Bay’s scoring output fell from 30 points per game in 2020 and 2021 to just 18 points per game in 2022, Bowles fired Leftwich and several offensive coaches after the Bucs scored just two touchdowns in a 31-14 loss to Dallas in the playoffs.

Even though some suggest that Bowles ruined Tom Brady’s final season in Tampa Bay – and the NFL – keep in mind that Brady’s decline was more his own doing. The distracted Brady went through the 2022 campaign with a highly publicized divorce at the age of 45.

Since then, Bowles has overseen a changing of the guard at quarterback with the transition to Baker Mayfield. And he’s had to play with a rookie play-caller in Dave Canales, as several of the offensive coordinator candidates Bowles interviewed in the offseason turned down the opportunity due to the coach’s shaky job security.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles, DT Calijah Kancey and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Bowles’ 2023 Bucs were saddled with nearly $30 million in dead salary cap money and forced to play nearly a dozen rookies this season as a result. Not many NFL head coaches would have the patience or the willingness to play that many rookies, especially when on the hot seat, and some would certainly gripe about it.

Yet Bowles embraced the challenge and never complained or made excuses throughout the season. Whether he remains Tampa Bay’s head coach or not, Bowles was the right coach at the right time for this particular Bucs team.

Winning four in a row after a 4-7 start and five of the last six to take home another division title with a vastly different team chemistry and makeup from the previous season is not easy. Todd Bowles deserves a ton of credit for a job well done.

FAB 3. Bucs Want To See Todd Bowles Win A Playoff Game

When NFL owners and general managers hire head coaches, the expectation is to win championships. Not necessarily division championships, but world championships – as in Super Bowls.

The Glazers and general manager Jason Licht wanted to see two things from head coach Todd Bowles this year. The first of which was progress from the previous season. After finishing 8-9 and winning the NFC South in his first year as Bruce Arians’ replacement, Bowles went 9-8 this season and finished atop the division once again. That one-win improvement is improvement. But is it enough improvement to satisfy ownership?

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

That’s where the second part of the equation comes in. The Glazers and Licht also wanted to see if Bowles could win in the postseason. Because if a head coach can’t win in the postseason, there will be no Super Bowl.

Look no further than what the Glazers did to Tony Dungy after making the playoffs four times, including three straight years from 1999-2001. After a 2-2 start in the postseason in 1997 and 1999, Dungy went 0-1 in 2000 and 0-1 in 2001, losing twice at Philadelphia in the Wild Card round.

For as much as Dungy did turning around the franchise from 1996-2001, the Glazers wanted an upgrade who could amp up the Bucs offense and win in the playoffs. Dungy was fired and the team traded for Jon Gruden, who went 12-4 in 2002 and went 3-0 in the postseason, including winning Super Bowl XXXVII.

Can Bowles win a home playoff game in his second try in as many seasons? What helps Bowles and the Bucs is that they have won five of the last six games and have some real momentum on their side. Philadelphia is a shell of its former self and not the dominant team it was back in Week 3 when the Eagles beat the Bucs, 25-11.

The Eagles have lost five of their last six games and come into the game without any momentum, and a roster full of banged up stars and starters. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has a dislocated finger on his throwing hand, while starting receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are dealing with knee and ankle injuries. Starting safety Reed Blankenship suffered a groin injury in Week 18, and the other starting safety, rookie Sydney Brown, tore his ACL.

These conditions favor the Bucs winning on Monday night, but could work against Bowles if Tampa Bay loses because this Wild Card playoff game is certainly winnable.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

Also working against Bowles is the fact that the Bucs barely won a downtrodden NFC South division twice. This was not like the AFC East where the Tom Brady-led Patriots ruled the roost from 2001-2019 with 17 division titles, averaging 12 wins per season.

It came down to winning the NFC South with a losing record in Week 17 a year ago and beating the worst team in football, 2-15 Carolina, by nine points to win the NFC South in Week 18 this season.

Does Todd Bowles deserve the right to stay on as head coach regardless of what happens on Monday night? There’s certainly a case that could be made to support that.

But do the Glazers and Licht think there is someone else out there that could take the Bucs to the next level – perhaps an offensive-minded head coach with some juice like Gruden and Arians had? We’ll see what happens against the Eagles.

One thing I do know is that if the Bucs beat the Eagles, Bowles will stay on as head coach in 2024. He will have met the two criteria I believe the Glazers and Licht wanted to see this season – improvement and a postseason win.

FAB 4. Glazers Could Smell Blood In The Water With Bucs Playoff Loss

If Tampa Bay loses to Philadelphia in the playoffs, then the Glazers and general manager Jason Licht have to think about Todd Bowles’ future as the Bucs head coach. Bowles would be 17-17 in two seasons at the helm with a 0-2 home playoff record.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and owner Joel Glazer – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

One thing that could propel the team to move on from Bowles should the favored Eagles win the game is the amount of coaching turnover we’ve all seen so far. Before the Patriots named Jerod Mayo as Bill Belichick’s replacement, there were eight head coaching vacancies in the league. That’s one quarter of the head coaching positions in the NFL.

It’s doubtful the Glazers would be interested in Belichick or Pete Carroll, who was let go in Seattle, due to their age, as both men are 72. The Glazers are smart enough to avoid Belichick and Carroll, as they have just a few years left in their head coaching careers. Tampa Bay is a playoff-caliber team, but might not become a Super Bowl-caliber team for a few more years. That’s not worth the risk of an elderly short-term head coach.

But there are some very intriguing candidates out there this offseason that could tempt the Glazers to make a change.

When several recent upper-echelon teams like Seattle and Tennessee are looking to upgrade the head coaching positions by firing proven coaches like Carroll and Mike Vrabel, respectively, it does put more chum in the water for sharks – in this case NFL owners – to consider feasting on.

Despite nine playoff seasons and a Super Bowl loss in 14 seasons with Andy Reid, Philadelphia jettisoned him, seeking an upgrade in 2012. Of course, Reid wound up taking the Chiefs to three Super Bowls and winning two, and five years later, Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl in Philly in 2017.

The Glazers even sought an upgrade over Tony Dungy, firing him after he became the franchise’s all-time winningest head coach in 2001. Jon Gruden, his replacement, won a Super Bowl the next season as well as three division titles before his tenure ended in 2008.

After giving Gruden a massive contract extension in the 2008 offseason, the Glazers fired him after a 9-3 start turned into a 9-7 finish without a playoff berth. So the precedent has been set in Tampa Bay before.

Former Bucs OC Todd Monken – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who just interviewed with Carolina, is a very intriguing name, and one the Glazers and Licht know very well given Monken’s three-year stint in Tampa Bay as a receivers coach (2016-17) and offensive coordinator (2018). Monken interviewed with Bowles and Licht for the offensive coordinator position this past offseason.

Bengals quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher also interviewed for the offensive coordinator job, but turned the Bucs down. He made a very favorable impression on the organization, as did former Broncos passing game coordinator Klint Kubiak, who holds that title this year in San Francisco.

Detroit play-caller Ben Johnson, Houston play-caller Bobby Slowik and Miami’s offensive coordinator Frank Smith are also young, bright offensive minds who will be given plenty of head-coaching consideration around the league in the coming weeks. And Tampa Bay’s own play-caller Dave Canales has the look of a future NFL head coach.

Having so many good candidates to choose from in this hiring cycle could prompt the Glazers to seek a potential upgrade if Bowles and the Bucs falter on Monday night. For Bowles to end any talk, suggestion or speculation about a head coaching change in Tampa Bay, all he has to do is win.

FAB 5. Mike Vrabel Could Be A Wild Card Option In Tampa Bay

Although the Bucs might want to go with an offensive-minded head coach if they replaced Todd Bowles, the possible pursuit of former Titans head coach Mike Vrabel might be a wild card option for the team. Even though Vrabel is a defensive-minded head coach, he has an outstanding track record of 54-45 (.545) in six years in Tennessee and was a surprise firing this week.

Vrabel had four consecutive winning seasons to start his Titans career, including two division titles and three playoff appearances.

Mike Vrabel’s Coaching Career In Tennessee

2018 9-7
2019 9-7 (2-1 playoff record)
2020 11-5* (0-1 playoff record)
2021 12-5* (0-1 playoff record)
2022 7-10
2023 6-11
*Won the AFC South

Former Titans HC Mike Vrabel – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

There is a lot to like about the 48-year old Vrabel, who played 14 years in the league with Pittsburgh, New England and Kansas City, winning three Super Bowls with the Patriots and earning first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors in 2007. Vrabel is also a member of the All-2000s Team and the Patriots 50th Anniversary Team and All-Dynasty Team, as well as a member of the Patriots Hall of Fame.

His Titans teams were known to be tough and physical and had a blue-collar approach, just like Vrabel was had in his playing days. That’s an approach that would resonate with the type of team that Bucs general manager Jason Licht has built and wants to continue to build in Tampa Bay. Licht was in New England in 2002 when Vrabel was a player, but by the time he went back to the Patriots in 2009 Vrabel had moved on to Kansas City.

Outside of that season together in New England, Licht has the ultimate reference on Vrabel from his good friend and the Bucs’ former director of player personnel Jon Robinson, who hired Vrabel in 2018 and worked alongside him for four seasons until 2022 when Robinson was fired.

We’ll know more about the Bucs’ head coaching situation after Tampa Bay’s playoff game against Philadelphia on Monday night. If Todd Bowles’ team wins he should definitely return for the 2024 season and all of this speculation would cease. But the fact that Bowles is 17-17 in two seasons as Bucs head coach with an 0-1 record in the playoffs obligates Pewter Report to prepare Bucs fans for any possible scenario.

If the past week in the NFL with some surprise firings is any indication, anything can happen.