Throwing touchdowns while avoiding interceptions and making the Hall of Fame

Aaron Rodgers is the best in history at throwing TDs while avoiding picks, but does Russell Wilson’s ability to do so mean he will end up in the Hall of Fame along with the other guys in the top 5?

As it stands right now, Russell Wilson is fourth (actually third, but more on that later) all-time in touchdown-to-interception ratio (minimum 44 TD passes). See below.

Brock Purdy’s 44 TD passes just qualifies him (top 250 all-time in TD passes). In other words Brock Purdy is tied with three QBs for 250th all-time in TD passes (Dave Brown, Trevor Siemian and Roy Zimmerman). Unlike those three guys he has kept his interception number very low so far in his young career. He has only thrown 15 picks, which gives him a TD:INT ratio of 2.93. The is sixth best all-time (fifth in reality).

Among the top 30, seventeen are still playing in the NFL and five will most likely play on a different team in 2024 than in 2023.

Among the top five Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady will all be in the Hall of Fame at some point.

Benny Friedman currently is in the Hall (I had to look him up), but his TD:INT value should come with a huge asterisk. He played in an era (1927-1934) before the league kept individual interceptions as a stat (passing TDs were kept). So for the first five seasons of his career (when he threw 56 of 66 TD passes), we don’t have a number for INTs thrown by him. His 19 recorded INTs were thrown in the final three seasons and since he threw only 10 TD passes in those three seasons, we absolutely know that his INT number is probably triple that value of 19. Friedman actually led the NFL in INTs in 1932 when he threw ten (with only five passing TDs). The league-wide TD:INT ratio back then was about 0.5 which is a far cry from the high above 2.0 back in 2020.

So that brings us back to Russell Wilson who, if we leave out Friedman (as we should), is 3rd all-time in TD:INT ratio. That is better than Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Steve Young, Joe Montana, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger – all of whom are or will be in the Hall of Fame. However, if you look at PFR’s HOF score, Russ is only at 88.4, which is only a little better than Eli Manning, who will probably NOT get into the Hall of Fame. Admittedly, Russ still has a few years to improve his score and Kurt Warner got in with a score of 88.7 (and only one ring). Table of QB HOF monitor scores is below.

One of the things that hurts Russ is that Matt Ryan has a significantly higher HOF score (106.1), and like Eli, Matt will most likely not make the Hall. Russ has a ring, while Matt has none, but Eli has two. Philip Rivers has a higher score (98.1), but he also has no ring. While you can get into the Hall as a QB without a ring (Dan Marino, Warren Moon, and Dan Fouts), it definitely helps. Ken Stabler (82.2), Joe Namath (70.0), Len Dawson (69.7) and Troy Aikman (64.3) would probably be NOT be in the Hall without rings as neither was the best QB in the league when they played (we can argue this if you want).

Of course there is a QB with very low score and no rings who is in the Hall, Jim Kelly. Kelly’s score is 59.1. Just below Steve McNair and just above John Hadl. QBs with HOFm above 50 shown below.

However having two rings, like Eli, has not helped Jim Plunkett get into the Hall, but his score is 48.0. Worse than Phil Simms, who also has two rings. Then there are QBs with better scores who have one ring – Joe Theismann and Joe Flacco. You also have Daryl Lamonica who played mostly before the Super Bowl and won three AFL Championships. He’s not in the Hall and will most likely never be.

So my point is that Russ has good stats AND a ring, but he could end up missing the Hall (or at least having to wait for the sympathy vote). There are currently 29 QBs in the NFL Hall of fame with two locks waiting to get in (Brady and Roethlisberger), but right now only one of HoF QB is African American, Warren Moon. Whatever happens with Russ and the Hall of Fame after Russ retires, it will be seen through a racial lens.

If he gets in, some will say that it was only because he is black. If he doesn’t, many will say that it is only because he is black. It’s kind of a symptom of this moment in the US where two sides can look at the same event and ascribe almost opposite causes for it. Both sides will be wrong. While his race might play a role, it will not be the ONLY reason he gets in or doesn’t get in.

I also bring this up, because the QBs that Broncos could draft this year all have really good COLLEGE TD:INT ratios, but nobody, except Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, puts up the same high ratio of TD:INT in the NFL that they did in college. Brock Purdy has so far, but that’s essentially one season of results, so I’ll wait and see if he cam maintain his ratio of nearly 3:1. College TD:INT ratios below for QBs (min 60 TD passes).

Russell Wilson is close (he had a 3.6 in college).

Russ is 35 and many QBs start to decline quickly at 35 (other than Brady). One thing that might help Russ HoF case (assuming he doesn’t have a resurgence year in 2024 or beyond), is whether or not Dak Prescott and/or Lamar Jackson end up with a ring (or rings). All three, for better or worse, are seen as running QBs. Right now neither Dak nor Lamar has even made it the Super Bowl, while Russ has done so twice. As we saw with Jim Kelly, Hall of Fame voters give you credit for making the Super Bowl (just not as much as they do for “winning” the Super Bowl).