Trade up, trade down, or stay? What’s the most likely scenario for Rams in first round?

Will the Rams trade up, trade down, or stay in the first round of the NFL Draft?

The areas of need in the NFL Draft have been well documented. The Los Angeles Rams need obvious help at edge rusher, defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback. While general manager Les Snead addressed some needs in the secondary and the offensive line in free agency, now he’ll need to fill out the rest of the roster.

For the first time in the Sean McVay era, the Rams will have a first round pick. Sitting at 19, the options seem limitless. Is there a player or two that they see worth trading up for in the first round? Does it make more sense to trade back and acquire draft picks? Or could the Rams just stand pat at 19? Snead is never afraid to wheel and deal on draft night.

Let’s break down the likelihood of each scenario.

Trading up: 65% chance

It’s no secret that the Rams roster lacks some of the top-end talent that they’ve had in the past. That’s to be expected when you lose Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Floyd, and Aaron Donald over a two-year period. A trade up from 19 seems like the most likely scenario for the Rams and Snead in order to capitalize on blue chip talent.

There are a few ways that they can approach this. A move inside the top-10 to number eight makes some sense given the connection with the Atlanta Falcons. If they were to trade up in that range, they may be looking at Joe Alt if he falls or Rome Odunze. However, the price to move up inside the top-10 may end up being too much. If the Rams do want one of the top four or five tackles, they may need to get up to 12 and jump the Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints. A move up to 12 could be a lot more manageable than inside the top-10.

Another potential option here would be to double up in the first round. In other words, the Rams could potentially make a pick at 19 or trade back to the 23-25 range and take a player. They could then trade up from 52 into the 28-30 range. This would give them two first-round prospects and help them add to the top-end of the roster.

Trading Down: 25% chance

A trade up seems a lot more likely than a trade down. The Rams are at a spot in the first round where if they want to maximize the value of the first round pick, they may need to trade up. There’s a chance that if the Rams trade down into the mid-late 20s that Snead doesn’t see a huge difference in pack value or a huge talent disparity between pick 25 and the early second round.

While accumulating more draft picks is nice in theory, it’s also important for the Rams in this draft to maximize their value of having a first-round pick for the first time in the Sean McVay era. What you don’t want is a repeat of 2019 in which the Rams traded down from 31 to 62 and selected Taylor Rapp. There may be a scenario in which the Rams trade back, but the first 18 picks would have fall in a way where they either don’t see value in a trade up or many of the players that they like are off the board at 19.

Stay at Pick 19: 10% chance

There is a slight chance that the Rams like a player at 19 enough that they just stay there and take the player. However, that doesn’t seem very likely. There’s more value in the draft in a trade up. As mentioned, depending on the board, they could also move down and acquire more day two picks.

Again, it would take the board falling a specific way for the Rams to stay at 19. It would have to be set up in a way that doesn’t make sense for a team in the 20s to move up for a cornerback or edge player. Les Snead tends to be a master at working the phones at draft night. Whether it’s a move up or down, it seems very possible that a deal gets done one way or the other.