Using the past to predict the caliber of the Panthers 2024 draft class

Carolina has seven picks in the 2024 draft, including two second rounders. Just what should Panthers fans expect from this year’s class?

With the calendar turned to April, we are officially in “Draft Month”. To celebrate this blessed season in the coming weeks I’ll crank out content centered on the Panthers recent draft history, the perils of trading up, the beauty of trading down, and slip in another “BYU Homer” post telling the Panthers front office which former Cougar they should add to the roster.

Today, let’s revisit the Panthers recent draft history to get a feel for the types of players Carolina could potentially land with their 2024 available picks. To recap, here are draft assets the Panthers are working with:

• No. 33 (2nd round)
• No. 39 (2nd round)
• No. 65 (3rd round)
• No. 101 (4th round)
• No. 141 (5th round)
• No. 142 (5th round)
• No. 240 (7th round)

Let’s take a look over the Panthers draft history to see who Carolina drafted near those spots to help the past predict the Panthers future. Asterisks denote currently active players.

Pick No. 33 (2nd round)

DT Vernon Butler – No. 30, 2016 (77 Gs, 19 starts, 110 tackles, 8.0 sacks)

OT Chris Terry – No. 34, 1999 (100 Gs, 88 starts)

RB DeShaun Foster – No. 34, 2008 (79 Gs, 42 starts, 3,570 rush yds, 1,129 rec yds, 16 TDs)

Vernon Butler was a late first round pick who didn’t live up to expectations during his four years with Carolina and was mostly a rotational player during his seven NFL seasons. Chris Terry carved out a solid eight-year NFL career with 88 starts over 100 career games which was marred by off-the-field legal issues.

Many Panthers fans have fond memories of DeShaun Foster who spent five of his six NFL seasons in Carolina where he rushed for 3,336 yards (3.9 YPC), hauled in 996 receiving yards, and scored 14 touchdowns.

None of these players made a Pro Bowl over 21 combined seasons.

Expectations for pick No. 33 – Low-end starter

Pick No. 39 (2nd round)

DE Mike Rucker – No. 38, 2007 (139 Gs, 106 starts, 422 tackles, 55.5 sacks, 1 Pro Bowl)

DE Yetur Gross-Matos* – No. 38, 2020 (55 Gs, 32 starts, 142 tackles, 14 sacks)

OG Amini Silatolu – No. 40, 2018 (54 Gs, 31 starts)

WR Curtis Samuel* – No. 40, 2017 (91 Gs, 58 starts, 317 rec, 3,383 yards, 22 TD)

Mike Rucker spent all nine of his solid NFL seasons with the Panthers including his 2003 Pro Bowl campaign 59 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, and 12 sacks. While Yetur Gross-Matos is still a relatively young player with four NFL seasons under his belt, his ceiling in Carolina was more of a key rotational player than a starter.

Amini Silatolu spent six underwhelming seasons in Carolina and unfortunately became a punching bag for frustrated Panthers fans. Curtis Samuel spent four seasons with the Panthers and always teased high-upside potential before settling into his role as a consistent target who can produce somewhere between 600 and 800 receiving yards per season.

Expectations for pick No. 33 – Low-end starter

Pick No. 65 (3rd round)

OT Taylor Moton* – No. 64, 2017 (115 Gs, 99 starts)

S Jeremy Chinn* – No. 64, 2020 (54 Gs, 50 starts, 324 tackles, 4.0 sacks, 2 INT)

DL Terrell McClain – No. 65, 2011 (92 Gs, 34 starts, 133 tackles, 7.5 sacks)

Taylor Moton has been Carolina’s steady but not spectacular starting right tackle for the last seven years. Jeremy Chinn has left the Panthers as a free agent after four years in which his tantalizing 100-plus tackle potential was never fully realized.

Terrell McClain had a wild NFL career that will surprise many Panthers fans with how good it turned out to be. The Panthers foolishly waived McClain in 2012 after one season, giving up on a third round pick after 12 games. Over the next eight seasons he got playing time with seven different teams as a rotational player. He was never an impact player but he belonged in the league.

Expectations for pick No. 65 – Low-end starter

Pick No. 101 (4th round)

LB Hannibal Navies – No. 100, 1999 (96 Gs, 50 starts, 258 tackles, 4.5 sacks)

DB Dante Wesley – No. 100, 2010 (107 Gs, 2 starts, 106 tackles, 2.0 sacks)

QB Will Grier* – No. 100, 2019 (2 Gs, 2 starts, 228 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT)

TE Ian Thomas* – No. 101, 2018 (94 Gs, 52 starts, 116 rec, 1,055 yds, 4 TDs)

Hannibal Navies had a productive nine-year career which included a career-best 88 tackles with the Green Bay Packers in 2003. Dante Wesley spent seven of his nine NFL seasons with the Panthers as a rotational player whose best campaign was just 20 tackles in 2004.

Quarterback Will Grier spent two seasons buried on the Panthers depth chart before being released in 2021. He continues to bounce around NFL rosters to this day. Ian Thomas has spent all six of his NFL seasons with the Panthers and is an annual fixture among PFF’s lowest rated tight ends.

Expectations for No. 101 – Capable reserve

Picks 141 & 142 (5th round)

TE Gary Barnidge – No. 141, 2008 (124 Gs, 54 starts, 178 rec, 2,258 yds, 14 TDs, 1 Pro Bowl)

CB Zack Sanchez – No. 141, 2016 (5 Gs, 1 start, 9 tackles)

RB Marquette Smith – No. 142, 1996 (No career stats recorded)

Gary Barnidge spent five years in Carolina, including the 2011 season which he missed due to injury. During his time with the Panthers he caught just 18 passes in 63 games. He joined the Cleveland Browns in 2013 and flourished in his four seasons there and miraculously churned out a Pro Bowl 2015 season with 79 receptions, 1,043 yards, and nine touchdowns.

Zach Sanchez appeared in just five games in his brief NFL career. Marquette Smith didn’t appear in any games during his time in the league.

Expectations for Nos. 141 & 142 – Fringe roster guys with one random Pro Bowl season

Pick No. 240 (7th round)

OT Geoff Schwartz – No. 241, 2008 (74 Gs, 39 starts)

DT Kendrick Norton – No. 242, 2018 (No career stats recorded)

OT Lee Ziemba – No. 244, 2011 (6 Gs, 0 starts)

Geoff Schwartz spent his 2008 rookie season on the practice squad, then in 2009 he appeared in all 16 games, and by 2010 he was the Panthers full-time starting tackle. But he missed the entire 2011 season with a hip injury, was waived by Carolina, and finished his career playing four more seasons with three different teams. That’s an awesome career for the No. 240 pick.

Kendrick Norton spent time on the Panthers practice squad as a rookie before being waived and never appearing in an NFL game. Lee Ziemba appeared in six games as a rookie but was waived the following season.

Expectations for No. 240 – Fringe roster guy who makes a few starts

Summary

At best the Panthers could end up with the equivalents of Chris Terry, Mike Rucker, Taylor Moton, Ian Thomas, Gary Barnidge, Zack Sanchez, and Geoff Schwartz. That’s exactly the type of haul a rebuilding team without a first round pick needs.

At worst Carolina could end up with Vernon Butler, Amini Silatolu, Terrell McClain, Will Grier, Zach Sanchez, Marquette Smith, and Kendrick Norton. Let’s hope new GM Dan Morgan can fare better than this as he oversees the draft for this first time in his new role.