Value of Things: A Texans Statistical Deep Dive

Where can we put Stefon Diggs in historical context?

There is so much to impact with the Stefon Diggs trade. The national media seems much more focused on the Buffalo side of things. I suppose that makes sense for the national narrative. The team is literally paying more money for Diggs not to be on the roster than for him to be on it. Obviously, the whys and what-fors matter and they should matter as it pertains to Houston.

However, wisely or unwisely, the Houston Texans voided the last three years of the deal. On the positive end, if it is a bust then nothing carries over to 2025. You also likely get the very best of what he has because this has become a walk year for him. On the negative end, if he does ball out then you likely won’t be able to afford him and Nico Collins. It has essentially become a one year rental. So, who exactly are the Texans getting?

A Tale of Two Diggs

Minnesota Vikings Diggs: 524 targets, 365 catches, 4,623 yards, 68.4 catch%, 8.7 YPT, 54.9 success
Buffalo Bills Diggs: 644 targets, 415 catches, 5,372 yards, 69.1 catch%, 8.3 YPT, 59.8 success

The Minnesota portion came in 70 games played where the Buffalo portion came in 66 games played. Thus, we get a chicken versus egg question. Did Josh Allen make Stefon Diggs or did Stefon Diggs make Josh Allen? He had a collection of Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, and Kirk Cousins throwing to him in Minnesota. You could see the production spike as soon as Cousins took over.

Minnesota (per 15 games): 114 targets, 78 catches, 991 yards, 68.4 catch%, 8.7 YPT, 6 TD
Buffalo (per 15 games): 146 targets, 101 catches, 1,221 yards, 69.2 catch%, 8.4 YPT, 8 TD

I would guess that if you shot DeMeco Ryans and Bobby Slowik with truth serum they would tell you that they would take the Viking numbers right now and not look back. They don’t need Diggs to be the uber number one receiver he was in Buffalo. They would much prefer those other 32 targets be evenly distributed amongst Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. Meanwhile, those particular Diggs numbers would give the Texans offense what they didn’t have last season.

It becomes important though to look at why the production jumped. In those last two Viking seasons with Cousins at quarterback, Diggs combined for 243 targets, 163 catches, and 2,151 yards. He also had 15 touchdowns in those final two seasons there. Project that out into all five seasons and you’d get fairly close to what he did in Buffalo. Obviously, who is throwing you the ball matters.

Historical Context

The chief problem with the use of statistics is that many statisticians neglect to provide a frame of reference. Any number can look great or terrible when viewed in a vacuum. It doesn’t become clear until you put them up against other numbers. We know Diggs is likely a Hall of Fame receiver when all is said and done. The Texans already have one receiver in Canton and have one other that likely will go there when he is finished. So, how does Diggs entire career match up to the numbers that Andre Johnson and Deandre Hopkins out up while they were in Houston?

Andre Johnson: 1,640 targets, 1,012 catches, 13,547 yards, 61.7 catch%, 8.3 YPT, 53.5 success
Deandre Hopkins: 1,048 targets, 632 catches, 8,602 yards, 60.3 catch%, 8.2 YPT, 53.9 success
Stefon Diggs: 1,178 targets, 810 catches, 9,995 yards, 68.8 catch%, 8.5 YPT, 57.6 success

In the movie Major League, there was the famous scene where they talked about Jake Taylor being an all-star in Boston. They wish they would have had him two years ago. Well, maybe four. Diggs looks awfully good in comparison, but we aren’t getting THAT Diggs. We are getting the Diggs he is now. Plus, as John McClain likely pointed out to the Hall of Fame selection committee, who was throwing Johnson the ball?

Hopkins himself had Deshaun Watson for only two seasons. The crime of the Texans franchise history is being saddled with mediocre quarterback play while having a Hall of Fame receiver from 2003 to 2019. You could argue that Diggs has been more effective in general, but I would argue that is a pure difference in who is throwing him the football for much of his career.

Johnson (per 15 games): 150 targets, 93 catches, 1,239 yards, 62.0 catch%, 8.3 YPT, 6 TD
Hopkins (per 15 games): 143 targets, 86 catches, 1,173 yards, 60.1 catch%, 8.2 YPT, 7 TD
Diggs (per 15 games): 130 targets, 89 catches, 1,102 yards, 68.5 catch%, 8.5 YPT, 7 TD

I’m not seeing a ton of difference there. Of course, we have to allow for the fact that Johnson and Hopkins had mediocre quarterbacks for much of their time in Houston. Diggs had Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins for six of the nine seasons he has played. That’s a bit of a step up. We also don’t know if Diggs is capable of producing the above. He might come closer to his overall Minnesota numbers. Even then, the Texans are getting a much better third wide receiver than they threw out there last season.