Value of Things: Evaluating Texans Defensive Tackles

Is spending big on Christian Wilkens the right answer?

I make no bones about the fact that I come from a baseball analytical background. A simple Google vanity search would show four books I’ve written on baseball. Obviously, most fans would consider Moneyball to be the most influential book in the sport in this century. While, that is true, the book I’m thinking of is called Diamond Dollars but Vince Gennaro, He was the president of SABR and someone I’ve had the pleasure of meeting.

Now, what does this have to do with football? He put forth two concepts I think are relatively portable when it comes to pro sports. The first one is that there is a sweet spot where it makes sense to spend money. In baseball, that is when your team is sitting somewhere between 85 and 90 wins as it currently stands. In baseball, the notion that someone is worth ten wins is ridiculous. Most of the time you are lucky to get five wins. So, you better be within five games of the playoffs when you invest big money.

You could credibly claim the Houston Texans are within one or two games of being a conference contender. They were already in the playoffs and if you gave them a 12-5 record rather than a 10-7 record then they might be good enough to host a second playoff game. Maybe they get a more favorable opponent. Maybe they have something that could give Baltimore a better football game.

The second major idea from Gennaro’s book was something he called the platoon advantage. In baseball that was the difference between hitting lefties and righties. In football, that might be the difference between playing the run and playing the pass. Now, in some positions you can’t literally change based on running or passing situations. I think the defense would get wise if you rotated certain linemen depending on the situation. However, we do see that with defensive linemen and that is particularly true with defensive tackles.

The concept is the same between sports. A player that dominates against the run and the pass is likely to be paid top of the market money. A player that might dominate against one will get a fraction of that amount. What if you could build a roster of guys that complement each other and give you dominant performance against both? What if you could do that for less than the cost of one stud? That is the question in Diamond Dollars and it is the question we ask as we look at the defensive tackles.

Monday saw a ton of big time players flying around the league. None of them came to Houston save Lonnie Johnson. At first glance, not getting a big time player like Christian Wilkins might seem like a huge whiff, but considering the sale price the Texans may have avoided an albatross of a contract and may have improved their DT room in the process.

Basic Numbers

(Players in bold are currently under contract)
Foley Fatukasi— 650 snaps, 24 tackles, 3 TFL, 0.0 sacks, 1 pass defended
Sheldon Rankins— 673 snaps, 37 tackles, 9 TFL, 6.0 sacks, 0 passes defended
Maliek Collins— 780 snaps, 41 tackles, 8 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 1 passes defended
Teair Tart— 378 snaps, 24 tackles, 8 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 0 passes defended
Khalil Davis— 481 snaps, 32 tackles, 6 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 2 passes defended
Kurt Hinish— 542 snaps, 22 tackles, 2 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 1 passes defended
Christian Wilkins— 968 snaps, 65 tackles, 10 TFL, 9.0 sacks, 2 passes defended

Unlike other positions, the Texans could field the position with just those four players. Obviously, they would draft others or sign rookie/street free agents to compete and serve as depth, but if the season started today they could field the position. The obvious question is whether they would want to do that.

There has been talk of bringing back Sheldon Rankins and simply keeping the band together. Wilkins was linked to the Texans before the Raiders got him when the tampering period opened up. The fact that Wilkins is better than Rankins is not in dispute. The question is whether the extra investment is worth the extra production. The Texans can afford to splurge in one or two areas.

PFF Statistics

Foley Fatukasi— 650 snaps, 60.3 Run, 58.8 pass rush
Sheldon Rankins— 673 snaps, 39.1 Run, 74.7 pass rush
Maliek Collins— 780 snaps, 44.5 Run, 68.4 pass rush
Teair Tart— 378 snaps, 49.0 Run, 65.0 pass rush
Khalil Davis— 481 snaps, 60.7 Run, 63.7 pass rush
Kurt Hinish— 542 snaps, 47.5 Run, 55.5 pass rush
Christian Wilkins— 968 snaps, 69.5 Run, 70.8 pass rush

PFF is obviously one source, but we want to know whether we are getting quality snaps from players. They use a scouting scale which essentially goes from 20 to 100. Most players falls between 40 and 90. 40 is obviously bad and 90 is obviously excellent. That 60 mark is usually the line of demarcation between shaky and good. We can probably ignore Tart and focus on the difference between Rankins and Wilkins. The numbers back up what we saw above.

Not only that, but the words of DeMeco Ryans also back that up. Ryans has talked about the need to get better up front. That can clearly be seen with the run grades for the guys that wore Texans uniforms last season. Davis was the only one to score at average or better against the run. Fatukasi does as well and he was just added. So, they could bring back Rankins and say they have improved. The only other avenue is to draft a defensive tackle early in the draft.

Per 750 Snaps

Foley Fatukasi— 750 snaps, 28 tackles, 3 TFL, 0.0 sacks, 1 pass defended
Sheldon Rankins— 750 snaps, 41 tackles, 10 TFL, 6.5 sacks, 0 passes defended
Maliek Collins— 750 snaps, 39 tackles, 8 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 1 passes defended
Teair Tart— 750 snaps, 48 tackles, 16 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 0 passes defended
Khalil Davis— 750 snaps, 50 tackles, 9 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 3 passes defended
Kurt Hinish— 750 snaps, 30 tackles, 3 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 passes defended
Christian Wilkins— 750 snaps, 50 tackles, 8 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 2 passes defended

Before everyone flies off the handle, we should explore two caveats with these numbers. First, we have to acknowledge that making plays is not the sole judge of a defensive player. If a tackle can absorb two blockers then someone else can make a play. If he does it consistently then he may not make a ton of plays, but the linebackers might make a ton of plays.

Secondly, just because someone does well in 200 or 300 snaps doesn’t means they will do well in 750. Of course, if the Texans have five defensive tackles, not all of them can play 759 snaps. Tart isn’t considered a part of the teams plans, but should he be? Would he be a cheaper and more appealing option than either Wilkins or Rankins? Wilkins is a better player for sure, but when looking at both the basic numbers and the PFF numbers, he is about as good as Rankins.

As we did with the running backs and wide receivers, it is easy to see someone in a Texans uniform and get excited. Free agency is a lot like opportunity costs in economics. Once you sign one star the avenues for the other positions start to dry up. The Texans can probably afford two premium free agents if they play with the cap. Is defensive tackle worth it? Let’s hear from you in the comments.