Value of Things: Texans Throw a Curve

How will the Diggs acquisition impact the offense?

Someone once mentioned something about the best laid plans of mice and men and all of that. I had planned on writing a piece about possible additions to the wide receiver core and then the Houston Texans made a move for Stefon Diggs. We have covered the bare bones of the deal in terms of compensation and salary, but what does it mean for the offense moving forward?

Diggs has been a high volume receiver with the Bills since they acquired him in 2020. The biggest concern is that he has been increasingly disgruntled with the number of targets he has gotten, but those grumbles don’t line up with the facts. So, what we will try to do today is look at what happened when he was with the Buffalo Bills and somehow project that to Houston. Additionally, we want to know what it might mean for the other wide receivers and tight ends in the offense.

Stefon Diggs Usage in Buffalo

2020: 127 targets out of 596 passes = 21.3%
2021: 164 targets out of 655 passes = 25.0%
2022: 154 targets out of 574 passes = 26.8% (note: this was in only 16 team games)
2023: 160 targets out of 579 passes = 27.9%

This is moving in the wrong direction if you want an offense that is diverse and well-rounded. I suspect this is why the Bills are moving on. Their thinking is similar to the Bill O’Brien thinking when dealing DeAndre Hopkins. They want to diversify the offense, get some much needed cap room, and shed themselves of a headache all at the same time.

Houston is getting a reliable target that has been extremely durable over the past several years. It remains to be seen exactly what he wants. If he wants what he has gotten then you are talking roughly 25 percent of the targets from C.J. Stroud. If he actually wants more than what he has gotten then you are talking upwards of 30 percent.

Texans 2023 Numbers

If we focus on just the top three receivers and Dalton Schultz we can see what they got last year and if that will fit in with what Diggs might require. It might be possible if we simply eliminate backup tight ends and receivers or it could mean that some of these guys will see fewer targets in the new offense.

Nico Collins — 109 targets in 592 passes = 18.4%
Tank Dell Actual — 75 targets in 592 passes= 12.4%
Tank Dell 15 games (projected) — 102 targets in 592 passes = 17.2%
Noah Brown — 55 targets in 592 passes = 9.3%
Dalton Schultz — 88 targets in 592 passes = 14.9%

If all you do is add up the percentages, the Texans can accommodate what Diggs wants if these guys are the only guys playing. That’s even true if we assume 15 healthy games for Tank Dell. Essentially, if we assume 25 percent for Diggs then the totals would be around 85 percent. That leaves 15 percent for the running backs and backups. That’s not horribly realistic, so we should probably make an adjustment.

We can assume that Diggs will effectively take Robert Woods spot on the roster. In fact, it would not surprise me if Woods were a cap casualty in the coming weeks. That is particularly true if they want to sign another significant free agent on the defensive side of the ball. The running backs, backup tight ends, and backup receivers (not included above) combined for 161 targets last season.

Projecting 2024

We start with a basic assumption. The offense in 2024 will be similar to the offense in 2023 in terms of play distribution. We can assume a season where Texans quarterbacks attempt 600 passes. That makes life a little easier for the math and it makes sense that drives will be extended and there will be fewer three and outs. That means more total plays all the way around.

Stefon Diggs — 150 targets (25.0%)
All backups and running backs — 150 targets (25.0%)
Nico Collins — 100 targets (16.7%)
Tank Dell — 90 targets (15.0%)
Dalton Schultz — 70 targets (11.7%)
Noah Brown — 30 targets (5.0%)

This is all well and good, but the biggest factor to consider here is what happens overall to the Texans passing game? If we apply 2023 numbers to all of the Texans and career numbers for Diggs then we might get an idea of what Stroud’s season might look like. The biggest thing is that of those 161 targets, 109 were caught. That’s 70.8 percent largely du to most of them being running backs and tight ends. If we assume six yards per target then we can start to build a projection for next season.

2024 projections

All Backups and running backs — 150 targets, 106 catches, 900 yards
Stefon Diggs — 150 targets, 103 catches, 1,275 yards
Nico Collins — 100 targets, 73 catches, 1,190 yards
Tank Dell — 90 targets, 56 catches, 855 yards
Dalton Schultz — 70 targets, 47 catches, 504 yards
Noah Brown — 30 targets, 18 catches, 309 yards

Obviously, these are crude estimates. One could easily fold over Brown into the backups category since he will be the fourth receiver. That will impact all of the numbers as those 30 targets would be distributed amongst the other four guys. However, if we crank up the totals this is what we are looking at for the Texans quarterbacks.

600 attempts, 403 completions, 67.2%, 5,033 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt

I could do touchdowns as well, but we have no idea how they will be distributed based on new running backs and new targets. However, it would be fair to expect a bit of an uptick for Stroud in that department as well. So, how do you feel about these numbers? Are they too ambitious? Let’s hear from you in the comments.