What if the Ravens had listened to Mel Kiper and Todd McShay in the last 10 drafts?

How would the Ravens have fared with ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay been making the Ravens’ first-round picks?

The two biggest names in mock drafts are ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay. Each time they publish a new mock draft, the NFL world stands still to read and converse. So, what has their track record been over the past 10 years when it comes to the Baltimore Ravens picks? What if their final mock draft entries were what the Ravens did since 2014?

Before checking out the draft experts, let’s get a refresher on the Ravens’ selections over the last 10 drafts, along with some metrics to evaluate the picks.

With 13 first-round picks over the past 10 drafts, the Ravens have been rather successful, albeit with a couple whiffs. But even with the misses on wide receiver Breshad Perriman and tight end Hayden Hurst, they’ve put together one of the greater hauls of the past decade with five first team All-Pro seasons, 15 Pro Bowl seasons, 40 seasons as starters (of a possible 66) and a Weighted Career Approximate Value (wAV) of 428, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL. Below them are the Dallas Cowboys, whose wAV is an impressive 372 on only nine picks, followed by the New York Giants (346) and Jacksonville Jaguars (343), who also had 13 first-round picks over the past decade.

By wAV, the Ravens are the best team over the past decade in first-round drafting. Impressively, they’ve managed to have a such success while selecting only once in the top 10.

Now, comparing the picks of two esteemed pundits against reality isn’t all that fair. The experts can’t trade down and scoop up an extra first, or trade back into the No. 32 overall spot and claim the eventual two-time MVP. Instead, they have to make a cut-and-dry 32-pick mock draft and assign each team with a selection. Who they pick in the final mocks vs. who was available when the Ravens were on the clock and the changes made on draft night are significantly different. But they aren’t all off-base in their picks and this is a fun exercise, so we march on.

No way around the more than 100-point wAV loss as Jackson and Mosley are both off this board. But, Kiper made up some ground with the Peters selection in 2015. Of his 10 mocks, Kiper did hit perfect once, taking Queen for the Ravens in 2020.

For the most part, Kiper supplied the Ravens with a good set of players. Ball-hawk Peters, a solid edge rusher in Bosa before the injury spell and a pair of solid receivers in Davis and Ridley, though Davis is now retired and Ridley went through off-the-field gambling issues. While it’s not in the same latitude as the Ravens’ reality, it’s an adequate list of hits, if a bit underwhelming.

McShay beats out Kiper by one point in wAV, three Pro Bowl seasons and four starter seasons, but trails the Ravens similarly to Kiper. McShay’s picks are a bit more boom/bust. He hits on Mosley, Peters and Tunsil, but plummets with Lamp and Blacklock. He, like Kiper, also had the Ravens going back-to-back with Ridley and McCoy in 2018-2019, and taking Davis in 2022.

What’s there to take away from this? Well, the Ravens are damn good at drafting. They got a bit lucky in some instances, what with Hamilton’s drop and landing franchise quarterback and superstar Lamar Jackson on a trade-up after a fizzled pick on Hurst seven selections prior, but they also made due with their first rounders. They’ve produced consistent starting-caliber talent with their late firsts. Like it was earlier noted, only once has this team drafted in the top 10 over the past decade. Twice they’ve had a pick inside the top 15. They’re consistently having to watch as the best players in college are wiped from their board 10-20 picks before they’re considering a move. And yet, they’ve hit on some of the best prospects and rank No. 1 in wAV for their first-round picks.

The pundits didn’t do a bad job, but they’re contending with the Ravens and a pair of general manager’s who are among the elite on draft day.