Why Texans’ DeMeco Ryans may have chosen poorly with field goal against the Jaguars

Naturally the wrong decision can be gleaned by the fact it didn’t work. Clearly Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans should have gone for it on fourth-and-12 from the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 39-yard line rather than send out kicker Matt Ammendola to attempt a 58-yard field goal.

According to Doug Farrar from the Touchdown Wire, the decision to put the game on the foot of a known quantity was suspect at best.

Ammendola did indeed nearly tie the game, but we have to look at the process here. Ammendola has been in the NFL since 2021. and New York Jets, the Arizona Cardinals, the Kansas City Chiefs, and now the Texans, he had never made a field goal attempt of 50 or more yards. The last time he even attempted one was with the Jets in 2021 — in fact, he attempted three that season, and he missed them all.

Furthermore, if you go back to Ammendola’s career at Oklahoma State, he hadn’t made a field goal attempt of 50 or more yards since 2017.

So, again, we have to wonder why.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the optimal decision on 4th and 12 by their model was going for the first down by 2.9%. Their modeled winning percentage likelihood by decisions:

Go For It: 52.4%

Field Goal: 37.5%

C.J. Stroud may have been preferable to the backup kicker #WeAreTexans

— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) November 26, 2023

Going with Stroud isn’t typical second-guessing. Stroud had led the Texans with two game-winning drives entering Week 12. Albeit Ammendola was a key cog in the win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10, the reality is Stroud’s heroics all season have placed Houston in the position to have a first place showdown with the Jaguars mean anything.

Ryans chose the proven commodity of a backup kicker’s leg over his No. 2 overall pick’s arm.