Bucs Mailbag: Surprise Coming With First-Round Pick?

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Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions from the @PewterReport Twitter account this week in the Bucs Mailbag. Submit your question to the Bucs Mailbag each week via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag.  Here are the Bucs questions we chose to answer for this week’s edition.

QUESTION: What draft surprises do you anticipate with the Bucs?

FSU DT Braden Fiske: Photo by – USA Today

ANSWER: This is a great question because of the dichotomy of the question itself. If I anticipate something, am I truly surprised? True surprises are the ones that we don’t see coming, right? Well, I was truly surprised by the Bucs’ pick of Calijah Kancey last year because Todd Bowles has never targeted such an undersized defensive tackle before.

Bowles won a Super Bowl in 2020 with much bigger defensive tackles like Vita Vea (6-4, 355), Ndamukong Suh (6-4, 313) and Will Gholston (6-6, 310) as his starters. So for him to select a 6-foot-1, 281-pound defensive tackle, especially a year after drafting a defensive tackle with such a larger frame in 6-foot-6, 283-pound Logan Hall, it surprised me. So in that spirit, I think if Bowles and general manager Jason Licht drafted another defensive tackle in the first round it would be a huge surprise.

Tampa Bay had Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy in for a Top 30 visit and had formal interviews at the NFL Scouting Combine with Florida State defensive tackle Braden Fiske, Clemson defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro, Michigan defensive tackle Kris Jenkins and Texas A&M’s McKinnley Jackson. Could the Bucs use their first pick on a defensive tackle three years in a row? If a defensive tackle was the highest player on the board at the time, one could make the case for it as Vea is 29 and Hall, who is entering his third year in Tampa Bay, has not panned out.

Outside of defensive tackle, I can’t think of a real surprise as the Bucs need help at guard, center, outside linebacker wide receiver and cornerback. So all of those positions would be in play with the best available player in the first round. Perhaps the biggest surprise would be quarterback, assuming that the Bucs would be interested in Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. if he’s available at No. 26.

First-round picks have to play to truly be valuable and worthy selections – unless it’s a quarterback-of-the-future scenario. We’ve seen the Chiefs trade up in the first round to select Patrick Mahomes in 2017 with Alex Smith already under center as a veteran starter. And the Packers drafted Jordan Love in the first round in 2020 while future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers was still in his prime as a perennial MVP candidate.

QUESTION: I know it’s smokescreen season, but I’ve seen reports that Marshawn Kneeland may go earlier than expected, with one team potentially taking him in the first round. While I think there’s better value with interior offensive linemen than edge rushers on Day 2, do you think the Bucs would be “that team?”

Western Michigan OLB Marshawn Kneeland – Photo courtesy of Western Michigan

ANSWER: There is no question that the Bucs really like Western Michigan edge rusher Marshawn Kneeland. The team had a formal interview with him at the NFL Scouting Combine and also had him in for a Top 30 visit. After a strong showing at the Senior Bowl and at the Combine where he tested well athletically, Kneeland’s draft stock appears to be on the rise. Pewter Report has featured Kneeland as Tampa Bay’s second-round pick in the third edition of our official 2024 7-Round Bucs Mock Draft, as well as a second-rounder in Pewter Report’s All-Defensive Bucs Mock Draft.

But it seems like Kneeland won’t make it to Tampa Bay in the second round when the team picks at No. 57. So if the Bucs have a “first-round grade” on him, why not select him at No. 26? Trading down can be risky, so if the Bucs love Kneeland and he’s the best player available on their draft board at No. 26, they should draft him.

I’m not terribly concerned about his lack of sacks at Western Michigan because of his traits and playing style, which reminds me of New Orleans’ future Hall of Famer Cameron Jordan when he came out of Cal back in 2011. Kneeland is a big, physical edge rusher, who has experience standing up and rushing from the inside as a blitzer as well as outside. I think he can make a smooth transition from defensive end to outside linebacker due to his athleticism.

QUESTION: Scott, who are the five most likely players the Bucs will target if they stay at pick 26?

Oregon C Jackson Powers-Johnson – Photo by: USA Today

ANSWER: Great question, although this is tough to answer for two reasons. First, I have yet to see the Bucs draft board, and I don’t think general manager Jason Licht will be letting me view it any time soon. And second, neither I nor Licht know which five players will be available at No. 26 for Tampa Bay to choose from.

I’ve seen mock drafts where Duke interior lineman Graham Barton, Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson, Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse and UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu, and LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. are all off the board at No. 26. So then what happens? It’s so much harder to forecast who the Bucs will pick when selecting later in the draft. That’s why there was some good fortune in play in 2021 and 2022 when we accurately predicted Tampa Bay drafting outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and defensive tackle Logan Hall, respectively.

I’m guessing those five players I mentioned – Barton, Powers-Johnson, Verse, Latu and Thomas – would all be high on the Bucs’ draft board. So if any of those five players are there, I could see Licht pulling the trigger. Some other players I think we have to include at No. 26 for Tampa Bay would be Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman and Western Michigan edge rusher Marshawn Kneeland. Also the Bucs could draft an offensive tackle like Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton, Arizona’s Jordan Morgan or Alabama’s JC Latham and move them inside to guard.

QUESTION: It looks like the Bucs are likely to use their first-round pick on offensive line or defensive line. Is there a player at a different position, that if he is still on the board, the Bucs take him no matter what?

UCLA EDGE Laiatu Latu – Photo by: USA Today

ANSWER: Since I’ve already rattled off plenty of names of potential first-round picks for Tampa Bay in this Bucs Mailbag, let’s focus more on the positions. Keep in mind that unless a team is drafting a potential franchise quarterback in the first round – either to start to right away or as a QB-of-the-future candidate – first-round picks really have to start right away to stay true to the value of the selection. Right now, the Bucs have a pressing need at left guard and could also use a starting-caliber outside linebacker to replace Shaq Barrett, as neither newcomer Randy Gregory nor Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is an ideal fit for that role.

After that, the Bucs could use another starting-caliber wide receiver. Not just because Mike Evans will be 31 in August and Chris Godwin is in a contract year and turns 29 next February. Liam Coen’s offense will be heavy with three-receiver sets, so WR3 is essentially a starter, and the Bucs could use an upgrade over the inconsistent Trey Palmer. Nickel cornerback is also considered to be a starting position considering the Bucs are in nickel defense over 60% of the time. So finding an upgrade over Christian Izien could be worth searching for, hence the Top 30 visit for Michigan’s Mike Sainristil.

Getting an upgrade at center over Robert Hainsey is also important. Hainsey is entering a contract year, too. So the Bucs drafting a guard, outside linebacker, wide receiver, nickel cornerback or center in the first round makes the most sense because that player would start and see significant playing time. Even drafting another high-caliber defensive tackle could be considered, as the Bucs use three defensive tackles in Todd Bowles’ base 3-4 defense. And Tampa Bay could be looking for an upgrade over Logan Hall at DT3.

I think interior offensive line and outside linebacker make the most sense for the Bucs in the first round. But this is a deep draft at guard and center, so I could see the Bucs going at a different position like I’ve mentioned in a best-player-available scenario, and then coming back to edge rusher in the second round and addressing guard and/or center in the third round, as Tampa Bay has two picks in that round.

QUESTION: Given that the Bucs most likely need to rework some contracts before drafted players can sign, how quickly do you expect Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tristan Wirfs extensions to take place?

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and FS Antoine Winfield Jr. – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

ANSWER: Pewter Report reported last week that the team is making progress on contract extensions for both All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs. Bucs general manager Jason Licht also seemed optimistic about getting contract extensions done for both players this offseason. The team has until July 15 to get an extension done with Winfield, otherwise he has to play on his one-year, $17.123 million franchise tag. There is no deadline with Wirfs, who is set to make over $18 million during his fifth-year option season.

“We’ve had really good discussions there,” Licht said. “Once again, it’s like the same thing when we were at the Combine talking about Baker [Mayfield] and Mike [Evans] and Lavonte [David]. We really want them here, we want them here long term, I think they want to be here long term. We’ve had a good track record with getting things done. I feel pretty good about things getting done.”

The Bucs only have $488,099 in salary cap space right now, according to OverTheCap.com. So Tampa Bay will have to do an extension with either Winfield or Wirfs to lower their respective cap hits for 2024 and create more cap room to not only sign the team’s draft class, but also add another free agent or two after the draft.

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